USDA Supply and Demand Balance Sheet
July 11, 2014 Leave a comment
The USDA issued their Supply and Demand balance sheet adjustments for July this morning. These are the adjustments that are made monthly to reflect changes in global supply and demand changes for principal crops.
Corn:
The USDA reduced old crop feed demand by 125 mbu to reflect lower usage as implied by the June 30th Stocks Report. Feed demand for the 3rd quarter was down 6% at that time, resulting in the USDA’s adjustment this morning. Ethanol demand was bumped 25 mbu to account for the heavy pace in that industry. The net result is an increase of 100 mbu to the old crop carryout, putting it at 1,246 mbu…slightly above trade estimates. New crop (14/15) carryout figures were adjusted higher to reflect the larger amount of corn carried over into next year. Additionally, feed demand was lowered 50 mbu to reflect expectations of higher sorghum feeding displacing corn in feed rations. Reductions in supply due to lower acreage numbers were outweighed by the feed and carryin revisions.
Market Reaction: Slightly Negative – negative trend continues
Soybeans:
Old crop soybean carryout increased by 15 mbu this morning. Crush and export numbers both increased, but were offset by negative residual adjustments. It’s likely that the size of the 13/14 crop will be pushed higher at the end of this marketing year (September report). New crop saw higher adjustments to both crush and exports, but it wasn’t enough to offset the massive acreage increase that was seen in the June 30th Planted Acreage report.
Market Reaction: Negative
At 11:33 am, corn is down 6-7. Old beans are down -46, new beans down -19.
For more information contact:
Greg Mockenhaupt
Risk Management Consultant
Central Valley Ag – ProEdge
1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
Office: 402-685-5613
Cell: 402-380-9855
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