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Grain Market Report


With harvest underway, I want to say thank you for your business, and be careful.  I have also put together a brief email for markets this week containing important relevant info, as I know time is limited.  (Clients receive newsletter and recommendations)

 

Grain Markets – It was exciting this morning when beans rallied above $9.00 actually posting a $9.04.  A close above $9.02 would give us enough momentum to continue upwards.  I will also add the East Hub and area CVA elevators have has a 2 cent basis improvement on beans.  This was a bit of a surprise to me and expect it to be short lived, given so many elevators are already full.  Corn remains fairly range bound on the day.  USDA planting progress report is out today (due to Columbus Day).

 

9:32am

Corn even $3.81

Beans +13’6 @ 9.01’2

 

Weather – looks good for harvest!

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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Market Report


Markets 10/5/15 @ 10:33am

Dow +188.44
S&P +24.11
Nasdaq +45.37

 

Grain Markets 10/5/15 @ 10:09am

Dec Corn +1 ¾ @ $3.91
Nov Beans +7 ¼ @ $8.81 ½ 

 

A firmer tone at the open this am.  There will be a USDA S&D Report on October 9th.  Harvest seems to be in full swing now, and combines are in the field.  Hearing some pretty impressive yields as well!

 

Quick Look: USDA Stocks report from 9/30/15

Grain Stocks Report  

USDA

Avg Estimate

(mbu)

Estimate Range Last Year % Change vs LY
Corn 1,731 1,739 1,647 – 1,850 1,232 +40.5%
Soybeans 191 205 165 – 250 92 +100.1%
Wheat 2,089 2,149 1,987 – 2,285 1,907 +9.6%

 

 Yield Estimates from last week:

  • USDA in September estimated the corn yield at 167.5; soybeans at 47.1
  • Informa’s most recent corn yield estimated at 168.4; soybean at 47.2
  • FC Stone’s most recent corn yield estimated at 167.0; soybean at 46.9  

Corn: I remain optimistic on corn, with plenty of time for an opportunity to present itself sometime between now and July, storage may be the best plan for now.  If you are short on storage, we can use a buy back strategy.  If you have presold or hedged you could consider rolling to the March capturing .11 to .12 cents and putting additional money on that sale.

 

Beans: Weds stocks report was friendly the beans, and $9 resistance was broken following the report for the first time since August.  It’s promising to know the market is still willing to go there.

 

Strategy: With a small bounce in corn I am seeing a $3.40/$4.40 Triplex within reach for December ’16.
I will also add for both Corn and Beans CVA’s Grain Adviser Program is a good opportunity as well to have some bushels marketed for you.

 

For Fun: 

So I have wanted to buy a chicken coop and some chickens…..wife says I am nuts.  I have done countless amounts of research and even have my building plans.  Though it will probably never happen I stumbled across something unexpected?!?!?

 

Does your chicken need a sweater?

When the temperature drops and chickens lose feathers, many people bundle up their flocks, but others say the garments are more about fashion than function.  While there are patterns available to knit on your own, you can also buy chicken sweaters online.  I think hot coffee blew out my nose!  I must be insensitive thinking chickens are produce and not pets.  Boy was I wrong!

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report


Dow -64.47
S&P -8.42
Nasdaq -16.02

U.S. Stocks were lower this afternoon as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Feds rate meeting. This week Federal Reserve Policy makers are scheduled for a two day meeting Wednesday and Thursday. All eyes on the feds as they make their rate decision later this week on whether or not to make its first interest rate increase since 2006.
Gasoline – Oil prices slid today on concerns about gasoline demand and fresh indications that the war for customers in the global crude market hasn’t abated. Light, sweet crude for October delivery recently traded down 97 cents, or 2.2%, to $43.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell $1.66, or 3.5%, to $46.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Gasoline prices were trading at their lowest intraday prices since January, with futures recently down 4.3% at $1.3116 a gallon. Looks like we will be seeing lower prices at the pump.

Iphone – The hot new ticket is the…..wait what?….Iphone 6S, yet another Iphone 6 hits the market for preorder over the weekend, though apple has not released the results of the preorder weekend, it is supposedly a success. For me they are just too darn big…. I still want my phone to fit my pocket. But the good news it Apple is still one of the top 10 Stocks to own if Feds raise rates per Goldman Sachs in an article I read this morning in the Wall Street Journal, you can read more here.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/14/goldman-says-own-these-10-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates/

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Grain Markets @ Close
Dec Corn +6 ½ @ $3.93 ½
Nov beans+10 @ $8.84 ¼

 

USDA – A lot to talk about in general this week, starting the morning off with bullish sentiment.  All likely still positioning post USDA report, the numbers can be seen below:

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Corn Yield lowered from 168.8 down to 167.5 which lands production at 13.6 billion bushels, down 4 percent from last year’s record crop.  The trade seemed to be expecting more of a reduction, however if this comes to fruition this year would still be the second highest yield and 3rd largest production ever in the U.S.

Beans the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 30 million, but note they raised new crop yield from 46.9 to 47.1 which seemed to get attention.  However that’s only .2 bpa……

 

Corn – If the board continues to rally and close above $3.95, the next resistance line is $4.02 for Dec ’15.  Most of you know I have been a bear since December last year….however becoming much more bullish over the last 30 days, I am a longer term bull for now.  In my Monday email on 8/24 I said, “I have mentioned verbally to many producers that I am not as negative on corn.  It just seems corn wants to stay in the $3.50-$4.00 range” I continue to believe this, in fact, I am confident we will surpass $4.00 between now and July ’16.  Possibly even the potential to reach $4.50.  It seems likely to have some sort of “story” between now and summer that can give us some upside potential  It does not necessarily have to be grain related, there are also macro markets and geo political factors.  This is part of the reason I am hesitant to sell unless we see a rally.  Today offering a bit of a rally, I will circle back to my strategy last week.  It seems the opportunity is upon us to sell a Dec ’16 $4.50 call and get .26/bu.  Keep in mind this is a marginable position in brokerage.  You can also do this with our Bonus Premium contract and get .20/bu.  This premium can be added to a cash sale, HTA, or Extended Price contracts.  What does this mean?  It means you have a $4.50 offer out there for 2016 Corn, if the market closes above $4.50 on November 20th you will need to deliver, if the market closes below, then do nothing and keep the premium money.

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Beans – Up this morning, but hoping we get the ooomf needed to push us above $9.00 again.  Definitely more concerned about the bean prices moving forward.  As long as the US Dollar remains strong and South America continues to provide less expensive beans, our exports are likely to be impacted.  Today we made a run at and bounced off $8.88 ½  if we can close above that, our next resistance line is $9.04

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Strategy:  With some strength in the markets, let’s not forget making offers.  Choose a profitable level for your operation and make the offer.  Either cash contract or HTA.

 

Blog:  Okay, so if you have not seen our blog page, you should!  There is a lot of good stuff on there and I have the good fortune of being the blogger for Tuesday’s post.  So if you are interested in “The Anatomy of an HTA” then go here and check it out tomorrow after lunchtime, and let me know what you think.

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For Fun: Remember is a kid, climbing trees, dreaming of a tree house or a fort.  Maybe you were lucky enough to have one.  I did not, but the desire to build one is still there….but life interferes and other things become more pressing, and lack of a good tree creates a small obstacle.  Though there are adults whom have bitten the bullet and in some cases went all out on their treehouses.  Some actual works of art, some probably cost more than my house.  Incredible to see what people have done.  Here is a video of several tree houses that will blow your mind.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qdhmhheJuI

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report


Dow +300.61
S&P +33.30
Nasdaq +91.76

 

The US stock market made an aggressive comeback this morning gaining back Friday’s losses, and the Chinese market also moved higher overnight easing tension in grains, however, strengthening currency has long term implications to exports.  US Dollar losing some traction this am, and oil down but back above $45

 

Grain Markets 12:00pm

Dec Corn +3 @ $3.66
Nov Beans +13 ½ @ $8.80

 

Macro markets mentioned above have somewhat stabilized, gives us some strength on the overnight session as well as this morning.  I think we all know the markets have been less than eventful, and I cannot give you anything too exciting this week.  Glad to see a bounce this morning in the right direction.  Though grain has proven to be range bound in the beans, and slightly negative each day in the corn, we are likely to see some additional volatility with a short week and a report on Friday.

 

USDA supply and demand report later this week on the 11th.  It will be interesting to see if there are any changes to estimates.  It doesn’t seem like the trade is expecting to see much for a change if any.

 

My largest concern right now is basis.  Once we get into harvest and corn is going onto the ground, we are likely to see basis levels drop, so finding tools to limit basis risk for your harvest delivered crop should be at the top of your list for now.

 

Weather

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Fuel – AAA’s National Average for gasoline is $2.391, compared to $3.438 just a year ago.  Diesel $2.553 compared to last year at $3.796.

 

Nebraska current average for gasoline is $2.528 which is above the national average.  Take a look at the chart below, you can see Nebraska has been at orbelow the national average all year, until mid-July where Nebraska made its way to .137 over the national average.  It would be nice to see Nebraska get back down to average or below.

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The good news is diesel at $2.481 is below the average, and with the downtrend in oil likely to give us another break at the pumps, at some point it may be worth looking at filling on farm fuel storage for harvest.

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/

 

Strategy:  If the board gives us a rally, a March Corn $4.00 call might yield a 20-25 cent premium which you can add to your bottom line.  Worst case scenario, you have a $4.00 corn sale in February.  Then again, $4.00 sounds nice.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Market Report


Markets 10:30am
Dow -89.70
S&P -10.30
Nasdaq -20.87
Global stock markets headed lower at the end of a turbulent month that was dominated by concerns over Chinas and the timing of a U.S Interest rate rise. After last week’s big swings across global markets, the Dow finished up 1.1% for the week but was on track for its worst monthly fall since May 2012 on a percentage basis.

Grain Markets 10:31am
Sept Corn -1/4 @ 3.63
Dec Corn-3/4 @ 3.74 ¼
Sept Beans – ¼ @ $8.93
Nov Beans-3 @ $8.82 ½

Month end is upon us, certainly some profit taking to be seen in the markets as funds look to recognize profits for the month.
It’s time to consider your harvest logistics, I am happy to walk through these with you if you have any current sales on. HTA’s we should be looking at setting basis pre-harvest. If elevators begin piling corn on the ground we may see basis slip. If you have storage you might consider rolling your Corn HTA to capitalize on market carry. Corn currently giving 11 cents to roll to the March. Beans are only giving a nickel to January which probably doesn’t justify carrying it. Keep in mind, I am referring to grain sold ahead, not unsold grain.

Weather
We have been experiencing cool temps throughout the Midwest, but that ends today as we move into the upper 80’s and 90’s with chances of Thunderstorms Tuesday and Weds night.

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Corn: Corn continues to be range bound and likely to continue this at least until we receive news different from the norm. Looking to see INFORMA later this week, and if USDA finally lowers their yield estimates we could see a bit of a boost. The next major USDA report is September 11th.

Beans: Last week was really important to the future of bean prices. I mentioned to several folks after coming in Monday morning to see beans down .32 we need to see beans get back above $9 and stay there. Unfortunately that did not happen, and it looks as if we have found the new range for beans. I think it’s going to take a good weather (Freeze), or political story to get beans back above $9 for any period of time. Just be ready to capitalize when the opportunity presents itself.

Strategy: At this point my strategy is to focus on harvest logistics. Basis is likely your largest risk moving forward from now into harvest.

For Fun:
Labor Day weekend is approaching, and we will all be likely be taking a short trip, camping, barbequing, and getting caught up on home projects as we enjoy a long weekend. Some interesting facts from the Dept of Labor:

LABOR DAY: WHAT IT MEANS
Labor Day, the first Monday in September, is a creation of the labor movement and is dedicated to the social and economic achievements of American workers. It constitutes a yearly national tribute to the contributions workers have made to the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country.

LABOR DAY LEGISLATION
Through the years the nation gave increasing emphasis to Labor Day. The first governmental recognition came through municipal ordinances passed during 1885 and 1886. From these, a movement developed to secure state legislation. The first state bill was introduced into the New York legislature, but the first to become law was passed by Oregon on February 21, 1887. During the year four more states — Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York — created the Labor Day holiday by legislative enactment. By the end of the decade Connecticut, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania had followed suit. By 1894, 23 other states had adopted the holiday in honor of workers, and on June 28 of that year, Congress passed an act making the first Monday in September of each year a legal holiday in the District of Columbia and the territories.

FOUNDER OF LABOR DAY

More than 100 years after the first Labor Day observance, there is still some doubt as to who first proposed the holiday for workers.
Some records show that Peter J. McGuire, general secretary of the Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners and a cofounder of the American Federation of Labor, was first in suggesting a day to honor those “who from rude nature have delved and carved all the grandeur we behold.”
But Peter McGuire’s place in Labor Day history has not gone unchallenged. Many believe that Matthew Maguire, a machinist, not Peter McGuire, founded the holiday. Recent research seems to support the contention that Matthew Maguire, later the secretary of Local 344 of the International Association of Machinists in Paterson, N.J., proposed the holiday in 1882 while serving as secretary of the Central Labor Union in New York. What is clear is that the Central Labor Union adopted a Labor Day proposal and appointed a committee to plan a demonstration and picnic.

Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
http://www.cvacoop.com

Market Report


Sept Corn +16 ½ @ $3.89 ¼ 

Dec Corn +16 ¼ @ $4.00

Aug Beans +29 ¼ @$10.38 ¼ 

Nov Beans +23 ¾ @ $9.87

 

Today’s report will be to the point, as I plan to release more information following the USDA report this Weds.  I will also add you can watch for my blog entry tomorrow on CVA’s blog page.  You can read mine along with weekly entries from our very own grain and agronomy teams.  Found here:http://www.cvacoop.com/blog/

 

USDA Report: Report is Weds at 11am.  Corn is currently estimated at 166 bushel yield estimate for corn, and 46 for beans.  The trade is expecting to see a bit of a reduction around -1.0 to -1.5 bushels for both corn and beans.  A reduction more than 1.5 bushels would likely provide a bullish response.  Keep in mind the funds continue to remain long despite the downturn in the market.

 

Corn/Beans Strategy – Consider placing offers pre-report to capitalize on any report volatility.  Something like a $4.25 Dec ’15 Corn, or $4.35 Dec ’16 Corn.  Look at limit up type orders for beans $10.50-$10.60 for Nov ’15 Beans.

 

Basis – Be looking at basis opportunities, if the board continues to rally, basis may weaken (go down).

 

For Fun – Everyone that has had lunch with me will hear me order a Diet Pepsi….and when the waitress says “Diet Coke okay?”  I quickly say no thank you, Ice tea please.  I think my manager chuckles each time.  To me they are so different, and this coming from a guy that eats everything……

 

Pepsico Inc recently announced it is going to change its recipe for Diet Pepsi, to exclude aspartame.  Pointing out public concern over this specific type of artificial sweetener.  They are looking to go to more diet friendly sweeteners such as sucralose and acesulfame potassium.  The new Diet Pepsi will be out next week.  So go stock up on the original if you like it.

 

You have to listen to your customers, and you have to try it, but….but remember in 1985 when Coca-Cola rolled out New Coke….I remember how bad it was, and switching to Pepsi.  After receiving thousands of complaints Coca-Cola switched back to the classic on just  79 days!  So I guess we will all await “New Diet Pepsi” and see how it goes……

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report and South Dakota Sights


Markets @10:50am

Dow +27
S&P +2.26
Nasdaq +9.90

 

U.S. stocks were little changed early Monday following a batch of better-than-expected earnings from companies such as google (jumping 16.3%) and Hasbro (jumping 5.8%).  Investors turned their attention to a stream of corporate earnings reports from several large companies this week.  The Nasdaq ended at a record level on Friday, Gaining 46.96 points, or .9%, to 5210.14.  Googles surge is to blame posting their 3rd largest daily gain ever.

 

The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level as compared to the Euro in nearly 3 months on Friday, likely due to the continued discussion of the feds interests rate hikes later this year.

 

Gold Hits 5 Year Low

Gold tumbles, hitting 5 year low at the open today after 23 days of steady decline.  Gold likely weighed down by the U.S Dollars continued gains and the continued concern of the first U.S interest rate increase in more than 9 years.  While some analysts believe the down trend is the market taking advantage of low liquidity as opposed to actual fundamentals.

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Grain Markets @ 10:51am

Sept Corn -7 ½ @ $4.12 ¾
Dec Corn – 7 ½ @ $4.23 ¾
Aug Beans -6 @ $10.08 ¾
Nov Beans -6 ½ @ $10.00 ¼ 

 

A weaker start to the open this week due to favorable weather through the Midwest.  Fridays CFTC report showed spec funds long 130k corn, and just over 80k beans, the funds are liquidating some of these positions today causing some market negativity.  Also expecting crop ratings report out this afternoon, not looking to see much of an adjustment.

 

Corn – With today’s low landing right at the 20 day moving average we are likely to see some support in the $4.21 area for Dec Corn.  The next support line would fall at $4.10.  I will also mention there was a “Gap” at the open, many technical analysts believe there is almost always a gap retracement.  If that holds true we should see ourselves back to at least $4.29 ¼ in the short term.

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Beans opened very weak this morning below $10, but have gain back most of what was lost on the overnight by mid-morning.  The story in beans may not play out until August when USDA resurveys Arkansas, Missouri, and Kansas.  The trade believes we may see USDA reduce yield estimates by a few bushels.  Until then it seems Nov Beans will continue to see support at $9.80 and resistance at $10.30 giving us a wide trading range, until we get some news sending us one way or another.

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For Fun: Just returning from a vacation in South Dakota, I took the family to see some of the most impressive marvels of nature starting with the Badlands, the Needles, Sylvan Lake, Custer Park and even crystal cave.  Then of course Mt. Rushmore, something that many of us have seen but forget how truly amazing the process of making it was.  All done through private funding, this is not likely ever seem something of this magnitude in our lifetime being built.  Mt. Rushmore cost $989,992.32 to build, taking 14 years to complete, with over 400 workers to complete, there was not one single death.  Despite the fact that I have been there many times, it was the first with my boys.  It was a fun and affordable trip.

 

That said, there are so many things to do in the midwest over a long weekend, things we easily forget about, its easy to get caught up in the hustle and bustle of everyday life, or fixate only on glamourous trips.  When there are some great things our children have never seen right here in our back yard!  I will add the liesure trip and lack of internet…gives a lot of time to learn about your family, and hold a lot of conversations you may not ave had otherwise.

 

Top 10 places to go in the Black Hills
http://www.midwestliving.com/blog/travel/top-10-things-to-do-with-kids-the-black-hills/

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

 

Market Report


Markets 11:59am

Dow +104.76
S&P +13.98
Nasdaq +34.48

U.S. stocks advanced into positive territory today, lifted by gains in health-care and financial shares as well as optimism that Greece will eventually reach a bailout deal with its creditors.

 

Grain Markets 11:59am

July Corn +5 @ 3.58 ¼ 
Dec Corn +3 ¾ @ 3.72 ½ 
July Beans +16 ¾ @ 9.88 ¼ 
Nov Beans +17 @ 9.56 ¾ 

 

Very refreshed after seeing some good strength in grains last week, Friday provided a bit of negativity as people took some profits for the weekend.  This morning we opened a bit weak for corn this morning but eventually joined the beans in positive territory after 10am.  Most impressive is the 17 cent rally we are seeing yet again today in beans, giving farmers more opportunity to make a sale if need be.  Funds are currently net sellers in corn, and covering shorts in the beans.

 

Corn – USDA report today, last week crop condition dropped 74% good to excellent down 1% to 73%.  We may see this yet again.  Might give us a bit more strength in corn for the near term.

 

Beans – USDA report today, look to see 90% planted, with some planting delay, talks once again of Argentine Strikes, and political uncertainty in Argentina, we may continue to see some strength for a bit as short covering continues.  Resistance lines may still be difficult to break to get major movement. 

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant 

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report


Market Update:

6/1/15 12:05pm

July Corn +3/4 @ 3.52 ¼

July Beans -5 ¾ @ 9.28 ½

 

The Bears Have the Upper Hand.

It seems negativity in the market has become the norm, as many of us wait for the “summer rally” even just a bit of bullish news, or a weather scare to provide a selling opportunity.  Unfortunately the bears continue to win the battle and push grain prices even lower, as there are clearly more sellers than buyers.  The ’14 summer time rally was caused by the funds coming into commodities with a net long position.  The story is the opposite for this summer with the funds currently holding a significant short position in grains.  As many say “The trend is your friend.”  The funds continue to add to their short position as the market trends down.  As long as this strategy continues to make money, it is likely to see this trend to continue, in fact nearly 23,000 new shorts entered the market just last week.  Short lived rallies are possible in a bear market, usually in the form of short covering.

Planting progress continues to remains on track.  Traders are keeping an eye on this afternoon’s crop progress report likely showing around 90% for corn and 71% planted for beans which is right at the five year average.  Rain amounts have been plentiful and Midwest temps have been cool.

Fundamentally we keep circling back to the amount of grain, carryout, South American crop, and good conditions throughout the Midwest.  There seems to be a lack of Bullish news.  What would it take to cause a market bounce, or better yet a market turn around?  It seems the news would have to be very substantial.  Developing a marketing plan and the discipline to execute that plan is going to be important to the overall success of most operations this year.

’15 Dec Corn

’15 Dec Corn

Looking back, December corn made 3 new contract lows in the month of May and starting of the month of June with a new contract low of $3.65.  As long as we continue to make new lows in search of solid support, we will continue the trend.  For December $3.50 is a mental line for some, and it is possible to find some support at that level at least for a while.

’15 Nov Beans

’15 Nov Beans

Beans continue to drive downward at a pace that hard to keep up with.  Making new contract lows literally twice a week in the November contract, and again to start of the month of June with a new contract low of $8.96 ¾ the market doesn’t seem too afraid to go down.  Especially with the $9.00 barrier officially now broken and beans now trading in 8’s, I am concerned that come harvest time $9.00 will be just a dream that hopeful producers will be waiting for.  I hope I am wrong and we rally back to ’14 harvest prices, but the trend is currently telling us otherwise.  With 84 million acres almost planted and Brazil increasing their acreage in 2015/16 for the 9th consecutive year, the news remains bearish.

 

Risk Disclosure -The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report


Market

5/11/15 @ 10:03am
Dow -31.49
S&P -3.60
Nasdaq -3.51

U.S. stocks are down some today, pausing one session after the Dow posted its biggest one-day gain in more than three months. The modest moves followed a surge in stocks on Friday, after the government’s employment report for April indicated the economy was pulling out of its first-quarter slump.  Employers added 223,000 jobs in April.

 

Grain Market

5/11/15 @ 10:03am
Corn -1 ½ @ $3.61 ½
Beans Even @ $9.76

Reports: EXPORT INSPECTIONS @ 10 AM, CROP PROGRESS @ 3 PM; MAY USDA S&D REPORT TOMORROW @ 11 AM

 

Corn: Range-bound grain markets on Friday and again overnight, with the trade anticipating market-moving numbers today after crop progress report with many thinking 70-75% corn planted, but then attention shifts towards tomorrows USDA “Supply & Demand” report.  Where the bears are anticipating a bump in new crop ending stocks through increased yield expectations and demand reduction.

 

Soybeans: The Chinese government is again boosting economic stimulus by further reducing interest rates which is positive for beans.  Keeping on track, with the crop progress report today, many traders are thinking today’s crop progress data will show U.S producers 25-30% planted and well ahead of their historical pace.

 

Bird-Flu – According to the New York Times, Iowa agriculture officials said on Friday that bird flu would claim an additional four million egg-laying chickens on two more farms in a county already hit by the disease. Officials are waiting for preliminary tests on two farms in Wright County to be confirmed. The county reported earlier that a farm with 2.8 million chickens was affected. Iowa’s chicken loss is approaching 25 million, more than 40 percent of the state’s egg-laying flock.  You can read more here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/business/iowa-says-4-million-more-chickens-have-bird-flu.html?_r=0

 

News:  From DTN, Iowa, Nebraska: Bankruptcies Ramp Up

Read here: http://agfax.com/2015/05/05/iowa-nebraska-farm-finance-ice-beginning-to-crack/#sthash.RDsXVqiq.dpuf

 

Risk Disclosure -The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore,

you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition. Any examples given are

strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Neither the

information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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