Market Report

November 3, 2015 1 Comment


Markets:
11/2/15 9:40am
Dow +96.60
S&P +11.77
Nasdaq +34.07

Gasoline Prices: The price of gasoline is declining more slowly than oil, illustrating how consumers aren’t fully benefiting from falling commodities prices.

Typically, gas prices go up and down in tandem with crude oil, the main ingredient. But according to The Wall Street Journal, oil prices have been falling much faster than gas prices. Drivers have paid at least $1 billion more for gasoline than they would have if the historical pattern had continued this year, according to government and industry statistics.

Regular gasoline prices have fallen more than 28% in the past year to an average of $2.18 for a gallon of regular unleaded. By comparison, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has fallen more than 50% to about $50 a barrel.

Grain Markets:
11/2/15 10:02am
Dec Corn -5’0 @ $3.77’2
Jan Beans -1’0 @ $8.82’6

Harvest continues its momentum as the weather continues to cooperate.  Many locations now with significant piles of corn on the ground.  Central Valley Ag hubs continue to aggressively serve our area producers as locations begin to fill up.  There is a lot of corn out there, and this is a blessing for most area producers.

Increased yield:  Many area producers are seeing some pretty impressive yields!  Increases in yield can significantly change your business plan, and could be the difference needed with the grain prices of today.  The chart below is an example, if you marketed/planned on 175 bushels per acre for corn and 50 for beans, you established your breakeven based on cost of inputs etc.  When the final yields come in, there is additional profit to be had across each and every bushel.  This is one of the reasons break even calculations are so important in budgeting and planning.  These windfall bushels are a great thing, so congratulations!

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Corn/Beans:  The story is consistent between the two, corn and beans continue their range bound ways while we wait for a story which sends the market one way or another.  Though it seems there isn’t much more negative news to be had, the trade has built in with record yields, corn on the ground, and decent export numbers.  I think keeping an eye on South America, Ukraine & Brazil for a weather headline or something to give us an opportunity moving forward.  Another consideration is next week’s USDA Supply and demand report scheduled for November 11th.

 

Weather:

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The Weather Channel – If you are not quite ready for the chill that is normally associated with November then you may be in luck.  A warmer-than-average November is expected for the eastern half of the U.S. while colder than average temperatures are likely in parts of the West.

“The big news heading into November is an unusually strong sub-seasonal pulse that will oppose and overcome the baseline El Niño signal. What this means is that, for at least the first part of the month, the pattern will be more typical of La Niña conditions than El Niño conditions, with cooler temperatures across the West and unusually warm temperatures across the East,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist of WSI, a division of The Weather Company.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/november-2015-temperature-forecast

 

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For Fun:

Halloween weather was beautiful, and there was no football game scheduled for high school.  So we had over 100 Trick or Treaters.  The best part, we handed out full size candy bars, so the kids thought that was a great thing.  We did end up spending all day setting up our cemetery, and the boys and one of their friends got all dressed up to “scare” the kids.  It was a lot of fun for everyone!

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

October 27, 2015 Leave a comment


Dow -15.87 @ 17,630.83
S&P -3.83 @ 2071.32
NASDAQ -9.19 @ 5042.17

According to the Wall Street Journal Sales of newly built homes fell in September, suggesting a highly volatile segment of the housing market could be cooling.  Purchases of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 468,000 in September, the Commerce Department said Monday, down 11.5% from August’s downwardly revised rate of 529,000.

Luxury automaker Ferrari went public Wednesday, offering investors a chance to buy shares in the iconic brand and giving Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV cash to help finance its ambitious five-year growth plan.  Fiat Chrysler on Tuesday priced the initial public offering for its luxury unit Ferrari at $52 a share, currently $55.35 and raising about $900 million ahead of the start of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.  So if you have always wanted to own a Ferrari, this is the next best thing.

Grain Markets @10:16am

Dec Corn +4’0 @ $3.83’6
Nov Beans-5’4@ $8.90’0

Harvest progress numbers out later today.  Harvest looks to be gaining momentum and could be as much as 25-30% ahead of last year pace on corn, and 10-15% ahead of last year’s pace on beans.

Corn
Corn remains very range bound with little news or headlines to cause a shift in prices.  I also consider that all the news out there is primarily great harvest progress and plenty of corn.  That said, any news to the contrary could provide an opportunity to reduce some additional risk.  I continue to remain patient for an opportunity north of $4.00.  Understanding we have not been above $4.00 since early August, there is support around $3.72 and then $3.60 and resistance at $4.00.

Spreads have narrowed on corn, with Dec to Mar at about 8 cents.  Our best opportunities to roll were in early October reaching 11.5 cents and have since diminished.  It is my position to motivate clients to make moves at the appropriate times.  I often share my thoughts with everyone client or not.

Blurb from 10/6/15

Corn: I remain optimistic on corn, with plenty of time for an opportunity to present itself sometime between now and July, storage may be the best plan for now.  If you are short on storage, we can use a buy back strategy.  If you have presold or hedged you could consider rolling to the March capturing .11 to .12 cents and putting additional money on that sale.

Beans
Beans have also have continued to be range bound $8.55 to $9.15.  I am inclined to make some sales when the market bounces above $9.00.  Despite great exports, the market continues to hold in the range.  Another consideration, look how quickly we have lost carry in the beans market.  A couple of weeks ago there was 4-5 cents from Nov to Jan.  Friday was even, and this morning we have went to a 3 cent inverse.  If you need to roll, you may have to go to the March just to keep even on the spread.  However I anticipate that becoming inverted as well in the near future.

Weather

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For Fun

With Halloween around the corner, it was always one of my favorite holidays.  I used to go all out to make it great for the kids.  There are now college aged kids that tell me I can remember how scary your house was!  Are you ever going to do it again?

 

You see, a couple of friends and myself went all out, from 100 ft of cemetary fence, 6 fog machines, full skeletons from the “anatomical chart company.”  I built a lot of special affects using pneumatics, and even a full scale electric chair.  But one day……we had children, and trick or treating became all about them.  The whole “haunt” ended for 13 years!  But with my boys reaching an age where “trick or treating is for little kids” it time to break it all out again!  So this weekend we will see how much of it we can get set up, but one thing is for sure…… full size candy bars.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

October 5, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets 10/5/15 @ 10:33am

Dow +188.44
S&P +24.11
Nasdaq +45.37

 

Grain Markets 10/5/15 @ 10:09am

Dec Corn +1 ¾ @ $3.91
Nov Beans +7 ¼ @ $8.81 ½ 

 

A firmer tone at the open this am.  There will be a USDA S&D Report on October 9th.  Harvest seems to be in full swing now, and combines are in the field.  Hearing some pretty impressive yields as well!

 

Quick Look: USDA Stocks report from 9/30/15

Grain Stocks Report  

USDA

 Avg Estimate

(mbu)

 Estimate Range Last Year % Change vs LY
Corn 1,731 1,739 1,647 – 1,850 1,232 +40.5%
Soybeans 191 205 165 – 250 92 +100.1%
Wheat 2,089 2,149 1,987 – 2,285 1,907 +9.6%

 

 Yield Estimates from last week:

  • USDA in September estimated the corn yield at 167.5; soybeans at 47.1
  • Informa’s most recent corn yield estimated at 168.4; soybean at 47.2
  • FC Stone’s most recent corn yield estimated at 167.0; soybean at 46.9  

Corn: I remain optimistic on corn, with plenty of time for an opportunity to present itself sometime between now and July, storage may be the best plan for now.  If you are short on storage, we can use a buy back strategy.  If you have presold or hedged you could consider rolling to the March capturing .11 to .12 cents and putting additional money on that sale.

 

Beans: Weds stocks report was friendly the beans, and $9 resistance was broken following the report for the first time since August.  It’s promising to know the market is still willing to go there.

 

Strategy: With a small bounce in corn I am seeing a $3.40/$4.40 Triplex within reach for December ’16.
I will also add for both Corn and Beans CVA’s Grain Adviser Program is a good opportunity as well to have some bushels marketed for you.

 

For Fun: 

So I have wanted to buy a chicken coop and some chickens…..wife says I am nuts.  I have done countless amounts of research and even have my building plans.  Though it will probably never happen I stumbled across something unexpected?!?!?

 

Does your chicken need a sweater?

When the temperature drops and chickens lose feathers, many people bundle up their flocks, but others say the garments are more about fashion than function.  While there are patterns available to knit on your own, you can also buy chicken sweaters online.  I think hot coffee blew out my nose!  I must be insensitive thinking chickens are produce and not pets.  Boy was I wrong!

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Market Report

September 29, 2015 Leave a comment


Grain Markets 9/29/15 @ 10:24am

Corn +1 ½ @ 388 ¼

Beans + 4 ¾ @ 8.81 ½

Global markets rallied Friday after Fed Janet Yellen laid out plans to increase rates by years end, but the rally was short lived.  Global stock fall this morning due to concerns of China’s economy, Dow, S&P, Stoxx Europe 600, Asia’s Nikkei 225 all fell this morning.  Shares in commodities giant Glencore sank over 20% as they suffer from a slump in commodities.

 

Apparently another Government “shut down” is looming as of October 1st, 2015.  With Speaker of the House John Boehner’s resignation from congress, he agreed to stay until the end of October to assist with passing a bill to prevent shut down.

This afternoon weekly crop conditions and harvest progress will be updated, I am anxious to see as more producers begin harvest.  This Wednesday is the USDA Quarterly Stocks report, in the event of a market reaction it is wise to have nearby cash offers, and new crop HTA offers in place to capitalize.

 

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For Fun

A Lunar Eclipse last night for all to see!  Last night was the first full lunar eclipse I have ever seen.  A blood red moon, and it happened to be a super moon, something very rare!

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lunar eclipses occur when Earth’s shadow blocks the sun’s light, which otherwise reflects off the moon. There are three types — total, partial and penumbral — with the most dramatic being a total lunar eclipse, in which Earth’s shadow completely covers the moon.  A lunar eclipse can on occur when the moon is full.  A total lunar eclipse can happen only when the Sun, Earth, and Moon are perfectly lined up.  Anything less than perfection creates only a partial eclipse or nothing at all.

 

My family and I decided to head out into the country last night to watch the eclipse.  A peaceful quiet evening, a chance to talk with my family about whatever, but many good questions about science in general and the eclipse.  The only thing that would have made it better would have been a telescope.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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Market Report

September 24, 2015 Leave a comment


Dow +121.27
S&P +13.19
Nasdaq +35.25

Global stock markets climbed today, rebounding from heavy losses last week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 87 points, or 0.6%, to 16471 in early trade. The S&P 500 also rose 0.6%, after both indexes declined sharply on Friday.  The markets steadies after the Fed decision, though many people debating whether the Fed is going to raise rates yet this year.  We are most likely in for a period of choppy markets.

Commodities: Gold prices jumped after the Federal Reserve’s decision a day ago to hold interest rates steady, Prices for the metal, which have lost more than 7% in the past year and have been bumping along five-year lows, touched their highest level in more than two weeks on Friday, gaining $20.80, or 1.9% to settle at $1,137.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.  The gains weren’t limited to gold. Silver rose 1.2% to $15.163 an ounce, its highest level since late August. Platinum gained 1.6% to settle at $984.40 an ounce, and palladium rose 1.9% to settle at $610.85 an ounce.

Weather:image001

Dec Corn +1 ¾ @ $3.79
Nov Beans+5 ¼ @ $8.72 ½ 

Since last week we have seen grain markets lose some ground.  With our high of the week coming in on Tuesday at @ $3.95 for Dec corn and $8.94 for Nov beans.  With a wide open week for harvest in many parts of the Midwest, it seems good harvest conditions pressure grains, despite good export numbers this am.

EXPORTERS SELL 487,680 TONNES U.S. CORN TO MEXICO FOR 2015/16 DELIVERY – USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 240,000 TONNES U.S. SOYBEANS TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS FOR 2015/16 DELIVERY – USDA

 

Corn: Corn was a 2 sided trade this am opening lower, but pushing higher by 9am.  Little to report as far as fresh news, conditions for harvest seem to be moving right along, wet corn programs popping up around as some producers get an early start.  Ethanol remains steady, and exports can be debated (knowing there are cheaper supplies in South America).  Also the feed and residual can be a variable to give us some movement.  But without a story, we are likely to see corn push lower into harvest.

Beans:  Beans continue getting beat down by the same thing….dollar higher, Brazilian acres, uncertainty in China.  At some point the story gets old, and traders move on.  Not saying we will see a rally, just saying we need something more to make a new low than the same stories, with $8.53 ¼ being the bottom for the November contract.  Seems like beans are happy in the range of $8.65-$8.94 as they have been since Aug 25th.  At least until the story comes!

For Fun:With the Christmas season fast approaching………ha ha….got you!  It’s not even Halloween yet!  But for some reason we are all seeing Christmas stuff in the stores.  Every year I catch myself saying….I swear it’s earlier each year.  Referred to as the “Holiday Creep” stores have been pushing Christmas displays and promotions into stores earlier and earlier each year.  So this is a real thing?   I walked into a store in Lincoln this weekend to see Christmas trees……

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In 2011 Walmart launched it “holiday layaway program” a month early (in mid-October), and now in 2015 Walmart launched it in August!  Kmart airing its first Christmas commercial last year in September, so get ready for the Christmas toy commercials.  Yikes!  I personally enjoy Christmas, but I am tired of it before it even gets here.  I mean really, Christmas?  I haven’t even bought my trick or treat candy yet…..know why?  It not even October yet…..

 

But consumers are to blame, apparently enough get excited and start buying.  Retailers only begin early because it increases sales, so crank the Christmas tunes and head on over to your local store and pick up a zombie mask, a Christmas tree, and a gallon of milk.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

September 18, 2015 Leave a comment


Dow -64.47
S&P -8.42
Nasdaq -16.02

U.S. Stocks were lower this afternoon as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Feds rate meeting. This week Federal Reserve Policy makers are scheduled for a two day meeting Wednesday and Thursday. All eyes on the feds as they make their rate decision later this week on whether or not to make its first interest rate increase since 2006.
Gasoline – Oil prices slid today on concerns about gasoline demand and fresh indications that the war for customers in the global crude market hasn’t abated. Light, sweet crude for October delivery recently traded down 97 cents, or 2.2%, to $43.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell $1.66, or 3.5%, to $46.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Gasoline prices were trading at their lowest intraday prices since January, with futures recently down 4.3% at $1.3116 a gallon. Looks like we will be seeing lower prices at the pump.

Iphone – The hot new ticket is the…..wait what?….Iphone 6S, yet another Iphone 6 hits the market for preorder over the weekend, though apple has not released the results of the preorder weekend, it is supposedly a success. For me they are just too darn big…. I still want my phone to fit my pocket. But the good news it Apple is still one of the top 10 Stocks to own if Feds raise rates per Goldman Sachs in an article I read this morning in the Wall Street Journal, you can read more here.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/14/goldman-says-own-these-10-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates/

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Grain Markets @ Close
Dec Corn +6 ½ @ $3.93 ½
Nov beans+10 @ $8.84 ¼

 

USDA – A lot to talk about in general this week, starting the morning off with bullish sentiment.  All likely still positioning post USDA report, the numbers can be seen below:

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Corn Yield lowered from 168.8 down to 167.5 which lands production at 13.6 billion bushels, down 4 percent from last year’s record crop.  The trade seemed to be expecting more of a reduction, however if this comes to fruition this year would still be the second highest yield and 3rd largest production ever in the U.S.

Beans the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 30 million, but note they raised new crop yield from 46.9 to 47.1 which seemed to get attention.  However that’s only .2 bpa……

 

Corn – If the board continues to rally and close above $3.95, the next resistance line is $4.02 for Dec ’15.  Most of you know I have been a bear since December last year….however becoming much more bullish over the last 30 days, I am a longer term bull for now.  In my Monday email on 8/24 I said, “I have mentioned verbally to many producers that I am not as negative on corn.  It just seems corn wants to stay in the $3.50-$4.00 range” I continue to believe this, in fact, I am confident we will surpass $4.00 between now and July ’16.  Possibly even the potential to reach $4.50.  It seems likely to have some sort of “story” between now and summer that can give us some upside potential  It does not necessarily have to be grain related, there are also macro markets and geo political factors.  This is part of the reason I am hesitant to sell unless we see a rally.  Today offering a bit of a rally, I will circle back to my strategy last week.  It seems the opportunity is upon us to sell a Dec ’16 $4.50 call and get .26/bu.  Keep in mind this is a marginable position in brokerage.  You can also do this with our Bonus Premium contract and get .20/bu.  This premium can be added to a cash sale, HTA, or Extended Price contracts.  What does this mean?  It means you have a $4.50 offer out there for 2016 Corn, if the market closes above $4.50 on November 20th you will need to deliver, if the market closes below, then do nothing and keep the premium money.

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Beans – Up this morning, but hoping we get the ooomf needed to push us above $9.00 again.  Definitely more concerned about the bean prices moving forward.  As long as the US Dollar remains strong and South America continues to provide less expensive beans, our exports are likely to be impacted.  Today we made a run at and bounced off $8.88 ½  if we can close above that, our next resistance line is $9.04

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Strategy:  With some strength in the markets, let’s not forget making offers.  Choose a profitable level for your operation and make the offer.  Either cash contract or HTA.

 

Blog:  Okay, so if you have not seen our blog page, you should!  There is a lot of good stuff on there and I have the good fortune of being the blogger for Tuesday’s post.  So if you are interested in “The Anatomy of an HTA” then go here and check it out tomorrow after lunchtime, and let me know what you think.

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For Fun: Remember is a kid, climbing trees, dreaming of a tree house or a fort.  Maybe you were lucky enough to have one.  I did not, but the desire to build one is still there….but life interferes and other things become more pressing, and lack of a good tree creates a small obstacle.  Though there are adults whom have bitten the bullet and in some cases went all out on their treehouses.  Some actual works of art, some probably cost more than my house.  Incredible to see what people have done.  Here is a video of several tree houses that will blow your mind.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qdhmhheJuI

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

September 4, 2015 Leave a comment


Informa September

Corn  168.8 bu/ac  13.688 bil bu

Soybeans  47.0 bu/ac  3.924 bil bu

 

FCStone September

Corn  Yield 165.9, Production 13457

Soybeans Yield 45.4, Production 3791

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

August 31, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets 10:30am
Dow -89.70
S&P -10.30
Nasdaq -20.87
Global stock markets headed lower at the end of a turbulent month that was dominated by concerns over Chinas and the timing of a U.S Interest rate rise. After last week’s big swings across global markets, the Dow finished up 1.1% for the week but was on track for its worst monthly fall since May 2012 on a percentage basis.

Grain Markets 10:31am
Sept Corn -1/4 @ 3.63
Dec Corn-3/4 @ 3.74 ¼
Sept Beans – ¼ @ $8.93
Nov Beans-3 @ $8.82 ½

Month end is upon us, certainly some profit taking to be seen in the markets as funds look to recognize profits for the month.
It’s time to consider your harvest logistics, I am happy to walk through these with you if you have any current sales on. HTA’s we should be looking at setting basis pre-harvest. If elevators begin piling corn on the ground we may see basis slip. If you have storage you might consider rolling your Corn HTA to capitalize on market carry. Corn currently giving 11 cents to roll to the March. Beans are only giving a nickel to January which probably doesn’t justify carrying it. Keep in mind, I am referring to grain sold ahead, not unsold grain.

Weather
We have been experiencing cool temps throughout the Midwest, but that ends today as we move into the upper 80’s and 90’s with chances of Thunderstorms Tuesday and Weds night.

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Corn: Corn continues to be range bound and likely to continue this at least until we receive news different from the norm. Looking to see INFORMA later this week, and if USDA finally lowers their yield estimates we could see a bit of a boost. The next major USDA report is September 11th.

Beans: Last week was really important to the future of bean prices. I mentioned to several folks after coming in Monday morning to see beans down .32 we need to see beans get back above $9 and stay there. Unfortunately that did not happen, and it looks as if we have found the new range for beans. I think it’s going to take a good weather (Freeze), or political story to get beans back above $9 for any period of time. Just be ready to capitalize when the opportunity presents itself.

Strategy: At this point my strategy is to focus on harvest logistics. Basis is likely your largest risk moving forward from now into harvest.

For Fun:
Labor Day weekend is approaching, and we will all be likely be taking a short trip, camping, barbequing, and getting caught up on home projects as we enjoy a long weekend. Some interesting facts from the Dept of Labor:

LABOR DAY: WHAT IT MEANS
Labor Day, the first Monday in September, is a creation of the labor movement and is dedicated to the social and economic achievements of American workers. It constitutes a yearly national tribute to the contributions workers have made to the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country.

LABOR DAY LEGISLATION
Through the years the nation gave increasing emphasis to Labor Day. The first governmental recognition came through municipal ordinances passed during 1885 and 1886. From these, a movement developed to secure state legislation. The first state bill was introduced into the New York legislature, but the first to become law was passed by Oregon on February 21, 1887. During the year four more states — Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York — created the Labor Day holiday by legislative enactment. By the end of the decade Connecticut, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania had followed suit. By 1894, 23 other states had adopted the holiday in honor of workers, and on June 28 of that year, Congress passed an act making the first Monday in September of each year a legal holiday in the District of Columbia and the territories.

FOUNDER OF LABOR DAY

More than 100 years after the first Labor Day observance, there is still some doubt as to who first proposed the holiday for workers.
Some records show that Peter J. McGuire, general secretary of the Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners and a cofounder of the American Federation of Labor, was first in suggesting a day to honor those “who from rude nature have delved and carved all the grandeur we behold.”
But Peter McGuire’s place in Labor Day history has not gone unchallenged. Many believe that Matthew Maguire, a machinist, not Peter McGuire, founded the holiday. Recent research seems to support the contention that Matthew Maguire, later the secretary of Local 344 of the International Association of Machinists in Paterson, N.J., proposed the holiday in 1882 while serving as secretary of the Central Labor Union in New York. What is clear is that the Central Labor Union adopted a Labor Day proposal and appointed a committee to plan a demonstration and picnic.

Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
http://www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

August 24, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets 9:50am

U.S. stocks are getting hammered again this morning as the Chinese market plunges another -8.5%

Dow -663.16
S&P -66.44
NASDAQ -172.90

 

Grain Markets 9:51am

Sept Corn +3 @ $3.68 1/4
Dec Corn +3 @ $3.80 ¼
Sept Beans – 7 @ $8.98 ¼
Nov Beans – 8 @ $8.81

 

Grain markets were hammered overnight on the Chinese news Shanghai index closing down 8.49%, Japans Nikkei is down 4.61%, and the German DAX down 3.73%..  Seeing a rebound at the morning open.  We once again see corn green and the beans red.  Beans taking the brunt of the punishment, now seeing new crop cash prices today with 7 in front early this am.  Closing the overnight down .31 1/4 on beans and -.10 on corn.  The U.S. Dollar index trading down 1.26% and crude down $1.57 at $38.88/barrel.

 

Weather – The National Weather Service’s outlook for September calls for below-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with above-normal precipitation expected across western Iowa and the Central Plains, including Nebraska. Equal chances of normal, below- and above-normal precip are expected in eastern Iowa to the East Coast. The forecast should increase concerns about crops that are lagging due to late planting.

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Corn – Really continues its range bound trade, I have mentioned verbally to many producers that I am not as negative on corn.  It just seems corn wants to stay in the $3.50-$4.00 range.  Though if oil continues it downtrend, this could negatively affect ethanol demand right here in our back yard.   On the bullish side, many including Profarmer think the USDA is overstating yields, and the unseasonably cooler temps in our area have some talking early freeze.

 

China extends corn buying spree as imports top 1 million tons, China’s corn imports rose for a fourth month to the highest in at least a decade as a slump in U.S. prices made purchases from overseas more attractive.  http://www.agweb.com/article/china-extends-corn-buying-spree-as-imports-top-1-million-tons-blmg/

 

Beans – Price just continue to fall each week, beans do not seem too afraid to head lower, losing 25 cents last week and another .32 this morning.  Chinese markets provide concerns for U.S. Beans export sales.  We could see a turnaround Tuesday type of event, but longer term I am afraid beans do not offer much for bullish news.

 

Pro-Farmer – On Friday, Pro Farmer announced its national corn and soybean forecasts after touring the U.S. from Ohio to South Dakota last week. Pro Farmer sees 2015 corn yield at 164.3 bushels per acre compared to the current USDA’s August forecast of 168.8 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer’s soybean forecast was lower than the USDA by .4 bushels per acre at 46.5 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer pegged 2015 corn production 363 bushels below the current USDA projection at 13.323 billion bushels. Soybean production is estimated at 3.887 billion bushels.

 

For Fun – With Football season just starting, I realize a diet is not in the future, but rather wings and beer.  Who doesn’t love getting together for the occasional game with friends and enjoy the great game of football.  To start off the season here are 10 facts about the NFL you may not know:

  1. The New England Patriots were almost named the Bay State Patriots.
  2. If you signed up for the Green Bay Packers season ticket waiting list today, you’d have to wait almost 1,000 years to get your tickets.
  3. Wilson, which has been the exclusive maker of NFL footballs since 1941, produces 4,000 balls per day, or one for every Eli Manning interception.
  4. Only the Green Bay Packers has ever won 3 NFL championships in a row (thus disappointing Pat Riley) and never once in the Super Bowl era.
  5. Despite the misnomer that the NFL can only play Sunday, Monday and Thursday, the league has actually played games on every day of the week.
  6. The Super Bowl trophy costs $25,000.
  7. The oldest record in the NFL record book is one of the most famous: Ernie Nevers scored 40 points in a 1929 game, getting six touchdowns and four extra points.
  8. Fred Dryer is the only player with two safeties in one game.
  9. The total audience for the first televised football game in 1939 was 500, about 112,200,500 less than watched last year’s Super Bowl.
  10. In the modern NFL draft, there’s only been one year in which a quarterback hasn’t been selected in the first two rounds.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Filed under News Tagged with , ,

Market Report

August 18, 2015 Leave a comment


Dow +40.88
S&P +4.87
Nasdaq +19.30

 

U.S Loosens the longtime ban on oil exports.  The U.S Government is allowing energy companies to trade oil with Mexico, which is a small step toward lifting the 40 year ban which prevented the selling of U.S. crude.  This looks to give American drillers a new market for their product.  This is potentially positive for oil prices and positive for grain.

 

Grain Markets @ 10:18am
Sept Corn -1 @ $3.63
Dec Corn -1 ¼ @ $3.72 ¼
Sept Beans +2 ¼ @ $9.27 ½
Nov Beans +1 @ 9.17 ¼

 

The first round of FSA acreage numbers come out this morning, this data is very early in the game, and the long term accuracy is questionable, FSA report as of August 1, showed slightly larger than expected total US prevent plant acreage at 6.44 mln acres, with corn at 2.300 mln acres, beans 2.173 mln acres

 

Pro Farmer crop tour begins today and continues through Thursday, final estimates reported on Friday.  It will be interesting to see if they confirm the increased yield that the USDA hit us with last week.  Watch for updates throughout the week, in fact, they have already “Tweeted.”  You can find the schedule here http://www.profarmer.com/pro-farmer-services/more/seminars-events/about-crop-tour#schedule

 

For Fun: With School either starting soon, or already begun, I now have 2 junior high boys.  My youngest, now entering 7th grade told me he is scared.  Scared he won’t find his classes, scared he won’t remember his locker combination.  I told him it will be okay…..the crazy thing is….I still occasionally have that dream as an adult. You know, when I’m in Junior high lost, trying to find my next class, can’t get my locker open, and freaking out.  I am sure you have had this one too, so maybe it is that scary for a 7th grader.  Especially if I still have that dream….

 

On a lighter note, what’s the deal on #2 pencils?  I always wondered why it “Must be a #2 pencil” for your SAT test.  Despite the “bubble” test now being taken over by computers, I still thought it might be interesting for the older generation (you know….the ones born in the 1900’s).  The pencil numbering system is a reflection of how hard and how black a pencil’s lead is.  Pencils numbered higher than 2 have harder leads and are often used by engineers, architects, and draftsmen because of their harder points.  If you mess up and use a #3 pencil on your test, it won’t matter, it might be a bit harder to erase if you make a mistake is all.

http://mentalfloss.com/article/24832/what-makes-2-pencils-so-special

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Filed under Community Tagged with , ,

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