Markets 9:10am 11/24/14
Dec 14 Corn -3 @ 3.69 ¾
Jan 15 Beans -5 @ 10.34
Market Journal – This is a great segment offered up by CVA’s ProEdge, this markets update is worth a lookhttp://youtu.be/eaZhAtmWP3M
Corn – December corn traded in a sideways fashion last week,
bouncing of off the 100 day moving average several times before closing mid-range on Friday.
Friday’s close saw December corn lose 7 cents in the last minute of trade to settle at $3.72 ¾.
This resulted in a 9 cent loss for the week. The negative tone continued at the open this morning.
Basis – Corn basis values have strengthened across the region last week as
processors gear up for Thanksgiving this week. Producers have been comfortable with their
crop in the bin, which has been a major contributor to the recent strength. If you have HTA’s or
other hedged positions, plan to take advantage of the strength and move some corn in
December. The railroad has been performing adequately as of late, so there has been some good basis to be had at CVA’s shuttle loaders.
Recommendations – Strong basis values are telling us to move corn right now
regardless if we like the price. If you would like to take advantage of the recent strength and
still keep your price open, feel free to call to discuss options for doing so.
Soybeans – Soybean performance last week was largely
technical in nature as long liquidation was a feature early in the week before some
buying surfaced late. The charts felt choppy the week before, showing some bearish
divergence on the charts as new highs were made. The $10.00 mark held for
January futures last week, supported by some speculative buyers willing to defend
the level. On the week, January futures picked up 16 ½ cents to settle at $10.39.
Export sales also seen as disappointing for last week.
NOPA – NOPA crush numbers were out for October on Monday. Member plants
reported that 158.0 mbu of soybeans were crushed in October when the market was
expecting a number closer to 151.0 mbu. The October figure was the highest October crush
number in the recent data set. So far this marketing year member plants have crushed
258.0 mbu, 8.0 mbu behind last year’s pace. For the year, the USDA expects crush demand
to be up 73 mbu, so a sustained pace will be needed.
Basis – Soybean basis values saw some strength this week as cash soybeans
descended below $10.00 at processor locations. That figure is certainly a magic number for
many producers, so weaker prices on the CBOT should encourage some basis tightness for
the time being. If you have hedged positions pay attention to some of the recent strength and
be ready to cash it in.
Recommendations – Place offers for cash soybeans vs January futures. I am thinking north of $10.50, but don’t get greedy.
That should put cash in the upper $9’s at most locations. With as volatile as the soybean trade is, the value of offers is quite apparent.
Thanksgiving Fun – a family in American can celebrate Thanksgiving with a classic turkey feast for less than $50 and at a “time cost” of only 2.39 hours of work for one person means that we really have a lot to be thankful for on Thanksgiving: an abundance of cheap, affordable food. Compared to 1986, the inflation-adjusted cost of a turkey dinner today is 21% cheaper, and 26% cheaper measured in the “time cost” for the average worker. Relative to our income and relative to the cost of food in the past, food in America has never been more affordable than it is today. Read more here: http://www.aei.org/publication/something-thankful-real-cost-thanksgiving-dinner-1-3-cheaper-last-year-21-cheaper-1986/
Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com
1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
www.cvacoop.com
Kat Country Hub 
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