Markets Close

Markets upon close 1/12/15

Mar Corn +1 ¾ @ 4.02

Mar Beans -36 ¼ @ 10.16

 

CORN

 

USDA estimated 2014’s corn production at 14.216 billion bushels, down 191

million bushels from its November estimate. Farmers harvested 83.1 million

acres with a record national average yield of 171 bushels per acre. That’s 2.4

bpa lower than USDA’s November estimate.

 

Corn stocks as of December 1, at 11.2 billion bushels, are 7% higher than

during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its quarterly Grain Stocks

report. Of total stocks, 7.09 bb are stored on farm, up 11% from last year. The

remainder, 4.12 bb, is stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance from

September to November 2014 indicated demand of 4.25 bb, compared to 4.29 bb the

prior year.

 

USDA’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year at

1.877 bb, down 121 mb from USDA’s December estimate of 1.998 bb. After USDA

incorporated the revised production estimate, it trimmed 100 mb from feed and

residual demand and added 25 mb of demand for ethanol and food, seed, and

industrial use. USDA said the extra corn use for ethanol was to offset a

decline in sorghum use for ethanol. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at

13.8% compared to 14.6% in December.

 

Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks 189.15 million metric tons, down a

little more than 3 mmt from last month on the decline in U.S. production. USDA

left Brazil, Argentina and China’s corn production forecasts unchanged. USDA

anticipates that China will import 2 mmt of corn, down from 3.28 mmt last year.

 

The global stocks-to-use ration came in at 19.5% compared to 19.8% last

month.

 

SOYBEANS

 

Farmers produced 3.969 billion bushels of soybeans, USDA said in its Annual

Crop Production report. It’s nearly identical with the average pre-report

estimate but slightly higher than the November forecast. USDA said farmers

harvested 83.1 million acres, a record, with a national average yield of 47.8

bpa, which is 0.3 bpa higher than the previous estimate and also a record. USDA

may update the soybean production figure in its September 2015 quarterly stocks

report.

 

There are 2.52 bb in storage, up 17% from a year earlier, according to the

Grain Stocks report. Farmers are holding 1.22 bb on farm, up 28% from the

previous year, while 1.31 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance

for September through November totaled 1.54 bb, up 14% from the same period a

year earlier.

 

The WASDE report left ending stocks unchanged at 410 mb. USDA incorporated

the slightly larger production estimate, which was offset by a 10 mb increase

in exports and 1 mb increase in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio was

unchanged at 11.2%.

 

Globally, USDA increased its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 0.91 mmt

to 90.8 mmt. It estimates Brazil’s production at 95.5 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from

December, and Argentina’s production at 55 mmt, unchanged from December. Global

ending stocks-to-use grew to 31.7% from last month’s 31.4%.

 

 

 

 

January 12th Pre-Report Table
Quarterly Stocks
		Dec 1	Average Estimate	Estimate Range	Sep 1 Stocks	Dec 1 ’13
		Stocks				Stocks
	Corn	11.203	11.123	10.820-11.325	1.236	10.453
	Soybeans	2.524	2.590	2.400-2.742	0.092	2.154
	Wheat	1.525	1.499	1.400-1.585	1.914	1.475
2014/15 US Production
		USDA	Average Estimate	Estimate Range	USDA    Nov ’14
		January
	Corn	14.216	14.349	14.171-14.554	14.407
	Yield	171.0	173.3	171.3-174.3	173.4
	Soybeans	3.969	3.956	3.844-4.020	3.958
	Yield	47.8	47.6	46.8-48.2	47.5
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
		USDA	Average Estimate	Estimate Range	USDA     Dec ’14
		January
	Corn	1.877	1.927	1.710-2.081	1.998
	Soybeans	0.410	0.393	0.355-0.452	0.410
	Wheat	0.687	0.666	0.636-0.699	0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
		USDA	Average Estimate	Estimate Range	USDA     Dec ’14
		January
	Corn	189.150	191.19	186.50-193.00	192.20
	Soybeans	90.780	89.35	87.40-90.55	89.87
	Wheat	196.000	194.33	190.90-196.00	194.90
Stocks, Production, Carryout numbers in bil bu.   Acres in millions.   Source: Rueters
US numbers in bil bu.  World numbers in million metric tons.   Source: Rueters
Compiled by Thomas Meierotto, RJO’Brien-Iowa Office, tmeierotto@rjobrien.com

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

 

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com