Markets upon close 1/12/15
Mar Corn +1 ¾ @ 4.02
Mar Beans -36 ¼ @ 10.16
CORN
USDA estimated 2014’s corn production at 14.216 billion bushels, down 191
million bushels from its November estimate. Farmers harvested 83.1 million
acres with a record national average yield of 171 bushels per acre. That’s 2.4
bpa lower than USDA’s November estimate.
Corn stocks as of December 1, at 11.2 billion bushels, are 7% higher than
during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its quarterly Grain Stocks
report. Of total stocks, 7.09 bb are stored on farm, up 11% from last year. The
remainder, 4.12 bb, is stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance from
September to November 2014 indicated demand of 4.25 bb, compared to 4.29 bb the
prior year.
USDA’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year at
1.877 bb, down 121 mb from USDA’s December estimate of 1.998 bb. After USDA
incorporated the revised production estimate, it trimmed 100 mb from feed and
residual demand and added 25 mb of demand for ethanol and food, seed, and
industrial use. USDA said the extra corn use for ethanol was to offset a
decline in sorghum use for ethanol. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at
13.8% compared to 14.6% in December.
Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks 189.15 million metric tons, down a
little more than 3 mmt from last month on the decline in U.S. production. USDA
left Brazil, Argentina and China’s corn production forecasts unchanged. USDA
anticipates that China will import 2 mmt of corn, down from 3.28 mmt last year.
The global stocks-to-use ration came in at 19.5% compared to 19.8% last
month.
SOYBEANS
Farmers produced 3.969 billion bushels of soybeans, USDA said in its Annual
Crop Production report. It’s nearly identical with the average pre-report
estimate but slightly higher than the November forecast. USDA said farmers
harvested 83.1 million acres, a record, with a national average yield of 47.8
bpa, which is 0.3 bpa higher than the previous estimate and also a record. USDA
may update the soybean production figure in its September 2015 quarterly stocks
report.
There are 2.52 bb in storage, up 17% from a year earlier, according to the
Grain Stocks report. Farmers are holding 1.22 bb on farm, up 28% from the
previous year, while 1.31 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance
for September through November totaled 1.54 bb, up 14% from the same period a
year earlier.
The WASDE report left ending stocks unchanged at 410 mb. USDA incorporated
the slightly larger production estimate, which was offset by a 10 mb increase
in exports and 1 mb increase in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio was
unchanged at 11.2%.
Globally, USDA increased its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 0.91 mmt
to 90.8 mmt. It estimates Brazil’s production at 95.5 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from
December, and Argentina’s production at 55 mmt, unchanged from December. Global
ending stocks-to-use grew to 31.7% from last month’s 31.4%.
| January 12th Pre-Report Table |
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| Quarterly Stocks |
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Dec 1 |
Average Estimate |
Estimate Range |
Sep 1 Stocks |
Dec 1 ’13 |
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Stocks |
Stocks |
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Corn |
11.203 |
11.123 |
10.820-11.325 |
1.236 |
10.453 |
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Soybeans |
2.524 |
2.590 |
2.400-2.742 |
0.092 |
2.154 |
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Wheat |
1.525 |
1.499 |
1.400-1.585 |
1.914 |
1.475 |
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| 2014/15 US Production |
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USDA |
Average Estimate |
Estimate Range |
USDA Nov ’14 |
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January |
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Corn |
14.216 |
14.349 |
14.171-14.554 |
14.407 |
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Yield |
171.0 |
173.3 |
171.3-174.3 |
173.4 |
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Soybeans |
3.969 |
3.956 |
3.844-4.020 |
3.958 |
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Yield |
47.8 |
47.6 |
46.8-48.2 |
47.5 |
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| 2014/15 US Ending Stocks |
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USDA |
Average Estimate |
Estimate Range |
USDA Dec ’14 |
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January |
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Corn |
1.877 |
1.927 |
1.710-2.081 |
1.998 |
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Soybeans |
0.410 |
0.393 |
0.355-0.452 |
0.410 |
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Wheat |
0.687 |
0.666 |
0.636-0.699 |
0.654 |
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| 2014/15 World Ending Stocks |
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USDA |
Average Estimate |
Estimate Range |
USDA Dec ’14 |
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January |
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Corn |
189.150 |
191.19 |
186.50-193.00 |
192.20 |
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Soybeans |
90.780 |
89.35 |
87.40-90.55 |
89.87 |
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Wheat |
196.000 |
194.33 |
190.90-196.00 |
194.90 |
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| Stocks, Production, Carryout numbers in bil bu. Acres in millions. Source: Rueters |
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| US numbers in bil bu. World numbers in million metric tons. Source: Rueters |
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| Compiled by Thomas Meierotto, RJO’Brien-Iowa Office, tmeierotto@rjobrien.com |
|
Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com
1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
www.cvacoop.com
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