Market Report

April 6, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets

4/6/15 @ 10:01am
Dow +98.50
S&P +12.24
Nasdaq +23.81

 

U.S Dollar: On Friday, the dollar took its biggest tumble in almost two weeks following slower-than-expected U.S. job growth for March. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls grew by 126,000. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 248,000.

The uncertain growth outlook has investors pushing back their expectations for when the Fed will raise interest rates. The Fed has kept the federal-funds target rate near zero since December 2008 to help the economy regain momentum after the financial crisis.

This could be the end of the U.S Dollar rally, but if not….the uncertainty surely makes it less appealing to many investors.

 

Go Daddy Goes Public 4/1/15: The “name” in the industry, with little significant competition.  You may recognize the name, the company is second to none when it comes to marketing, from super bowl commercials to NASCAR.  Go Daddy has done a great job of marketing, maybe not such a great job at making money, sporting $1.5 Billion in debt as of Dec 31, 2014.  This is a 20 year old company that hasn’t made money in the last 6 years.  IPO Pricing was $20 and bouncing 33% the day of the open.  It seems many were interested in owning a share, but where do we go from here.

Read more here: http://www.businessinsider.com/godaddy-is-ipoing-after-18-years-of-not-turning-a-profit-2015-3

 

Grain Markets 

4/6/15 @ 10.01am
May Corn -1 ¾ @ 3.84 ¾
Dec Corn -1 ½ @ 4.09

May Beans -1 ½ @ 984 ½
Nov Beans -1 ¼ @ 9.73

With the USDA Planting Intentions reports out of the way the focus moves more towards weather.  Many hoping for a weather story, I am afraid there doesn’t appear to be any major weather concerns on the horizon.

 

Corn: Corn continues to rebound each day post report, I suspect May corn to continue its range bound ways moving forward $3.83-$4.00.  Looking at the charts from January till now, it is no possible to build a trend line going up or down.  The trend line remains flat.   Looking at Dec corn there may be some opportunities at $4.25 or even 4.35.  It good plan is continue reducing long term risk on these rallies.

 

Beans: Beans bounced nicely post report, but have found themselves to be very range bound and flat since.  The uncertainty continues and as there is lack of news, traders will have little to react to.  However, any bit of news is likely to cause some movement.  We keep an eye on South American harvest as well as U.S Planting.  The concern moving forward would be another record crop for 2015 resulting in an even larger carryout, which could drive the price of beans down significantly.  Still plenty of “weather” between now and harvest, which may provide a chance to make a sale or 2.

 

For Fun: Easter is over, and the weather was amazing.  Proved to be the perfect time for family and a good ol’ Easter egg hunt!  Hope it was as nice for you as it was for my family.

 

Pontiac Trans Am: Thinking back to the 70’s the Pontiac Firebird reminds me of Burt Reynolds in Smokey and the Bandit!  The good ‘ol days, when you could jump your car over a broken apart bridge and successfully land on the other side, with you and your car undamaged.  The original ’77 Pontiac Trans Am sold for $450,000 at auction.  Though it was only expected to sell for $60k-$80k

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/16/autos/burt-reynolds-smokey-bandit-trans-am/

 

When I saw the Pontiac Trans Am was to be re-released in 2015, I was takin back in time… and was overcome with childhood memories of Hot wheels, Smokey and the Bandit, “T-Tops”, and my dad’s muscle car.  When you see pictures you will be taken back too.

The new release 2015 Pontiac Trans Am from company shall soon be available in either coupe or convertible trims and in Firebird Trans Am or the V6 engine trim levels. The Trans Am’s base model is equipped with a 3.7l V6 engine which generates well above 305hp and a subsequent 280lb-ft of torque while on the other hand the Firebird comes with a 5.0l V8 engine that can produce 420hp and subsequently 390lb-ft of torque.  Custom Interior options, will make anyone drool.

 

For all the pictures click here: http://pontiacfan.com/2015-pontiac-trans-am-specs-price/

image001 image002

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

March 23, 2015 Leave a comment


It’s CRAZY MONDAY!!! Why? The market is up and we all want to know why.  It’s great to see the board come back after such a negative week last week.

 

Market:

Oil is down, the US dollar is down, supportive to grain.

 

3/23/15 11:18am

DJ +30.20

S&P +1.63

Nasdaq -6.50

 

Radio Shack’s bankruptcy auction kicks off today, liquidating the companies remaining assets.  If you said “What? Radio Shack is closing” well that explains it all, if you walk into your neighborhood Radio Shack it will look empty, or be closed.  Even shelves, displays, everything is being sold.  However select stores will remain open and be co-branded with Sprint to keep offering Sprint wireless services.  Read more here http://www.wsj.com/articles/radioshacks-future-to-be-decided-at-bankruptcy-auction-1427057225

 

 

Grain Markets –

3/23/15 11:31am

May Corn +5 ½ @ 3.90 ½

May Beans +14 ½ @ 9.88 ½

 

Looking forward, many folks are preparing to the USDA  quarterly stock report and perspective planting data scheduled for March 31st.  It seems the biggest unknown is US planted corn acres.

 

Informa sent out some numbers last week, lowering both corn and bean estimates:

 

  • Corn: 88.5 million acres, down 75 thousand from January
    ·Soybeans: 87.5 million acres, down 547 thousand from January
    · Grain Sorghum: 8.2 million acres, up 601 thousand from January
    · All Wheat: 56.0 million acres, up 1.1 million from January
    · All Cotton: 9.6 million acres, down 210 thousand from January

 

Corn:  Corn broke $3.79 ½ resistance on Monday last week and really set the negative tone driving the market down to $3.67, before a key reversal on Weds.  Which put us back into the “range bound” range from 2 weeks prior.

 

Many farmers are still waiting for the “right price” to sell, and $4 might be the magic number.  That said, any potential rally in the corn could be met with farmer selling, thus capping the rally.  Many farmers are needing to free up some capital for spring input costs.

 

Beans:  Continued talk of record production out of South America keeps many bearish, however as the U.S Dollar continues to show weakness, we may continue to see the bean price supported.  Looking for any bounce in the market to make strategic sales will be key.

 

For Fun:  Exotic sports cars have always been something every kids dreams about, but what about domestic sports cars.  Many think Mustangs, Chargers, Corvettes, Camaros, but what about the Ford GT?  Ford plans to release the 2017 Ford GT and compete with the like of Ferrari, Porsche and  McLaren with 600 plus horsepower!  But not with a V-8…..but with the ECO BOOST?  I am amazed, and want one so bad I have to figure out how to explain to my wife I need to sell everything we own to get one.

 

This car utilizes a full carbon fiber construction including body panels.  To the carbon-fiber monocoque Ford’s engineers bolted front and rear subframes made from aluminum. The active aerodynamic elements include a multi-position rear wing that mimics the caboose-tamers of the P1 and LaFerrari to help keep Ford’s mid-engine supercar planted at speed. The suspension is active and uses inboard, pushrod-actuated damping, and ride height is adjustable.  Power comes not from a supercharged V-8 as in the previous GT, but rather Ford’s next-generation twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter EcoBoost V-6 engine.  Unlike last decade’s GT, the doors hinge up and forward and don’t incorporate portions of the roof; they still, however, grant access to a simple, businesslike cabin. A digital gauge cluster is augmented by a central color touch-screen display with Ford’s just-introduced Sync 3 infotainment setup, while the slim center tunnel houses the starter button and transmission selector buttons. A pair of paddle shifters sprouts from behind a squircle-shaped steering wheel, and we can’t get over the awesome door-mounted HVAC vents.  You can read more here http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2017-ford-gt-official-photos-and-info-news

 

And if you really like what you see, Here is a video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C-qSRnqUZg

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Report

March 20, 2015 Leave a comment


Corn: 88.5 million acres, down 75 thousand from January
· Soybeans: 87.5 million acres, down 547 thousand from January
· Grain Sorghum: 8.2 million acres, up 601 thousand from January
· All Wheat: 56.0 million acres, up 1.1 million from January
· All Cotton: 9.6 million acres, down 210 thousand from January

Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
http://www.cvacoop.com

Filed under News Tagged with , ,

Market Report

March 16, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets:

3/16/15 @ 9:47am

Dow Jones +159.14

S&P 500 +18.08

Nasdaq +36.44

 

The market rebounding this morning from a tough week last week.  Concerns of Yellen raising interest rates and the strength in the US dollar being among the reasons.  The US dollar & crude remain under pressure this week, with the dollar index falling this morning from the 100-point mark, and crude matching late-Jan lows overnight, technical traders are watching these

 

Grain:

 

May Corn -4 ½ @ 3.76

May Beans-1 @ 9.73

 

Fundamentally, corn and beans are looking for higher acreage estimates ahead, though demand data is on the way and expected to remain strong.

 

Friday was a lower volume day with the US dollar making another new high and pushing pushing down grain & energy commodities. We really didn’t see anything new on basis values heading into the weekend, if we continue to see negativity this week, we may see some added strength in basis.

 

Corn: Concerns of more competition coming from Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil with regard to corn coming to US ports, but lack of news in corn continue and corn stays range bound gradually pushing lower.  In the event of news regarding delayed planting, or weather may represent an opportunity for a cash sale.

 

Beans: NOPA crush out at 11 AM this morning looking for another record pace on crush with trade est. at 148.5 mil up from last year.  Argentina talking about flooding in the northern part of Argentina’s farm belt will reduce the country’s 2014/15 soybean production by 1 million to 2.5 million tons, experts said on Friday as growers started assessing damage done by heavy February and early March rains.

 

For Fun:

Did you know giving your children chores and actually requiring them to perform these duties may give them an edge in life?  Interesting enough 82% of people said they had chores growing up, but only 28% said they require their own children to do them.  Studies show chores benefit a child academically, emotionally and even professionally.  With a professor stating giving children chores at an early age helps to build a lasting send of mastery, responsibility and self-reliance!  So kids…..get your butt to work!

 

Read the article here http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-children-need-chores-1426262655?mod=trending_now_3

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

March 9, 2015 Leave a comment


Market:

A significant sell off on Friday in the stock market as strong jobs data raised expectations for a midyear rate increase.  The Dow industrials fell 1.5% in their biggest one-day loss since late January, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%. Last week the US Dollar posted new highs and Crude remained above $50.

 

This morning, both oil and the US Dollar showing down, while the stock market is bouncing back nicely, on this 6th anniversary of the Bull market.  The S&P 500 hit a bottom on March 9, 2009 at 676.53, losing more than half its value from the peak in October 2007. In six year since, the S&P 500 has more than tripled.

 

Market Headline: Apple will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing AT&T on March 19th.  Year to date AT&T is up 3.2% while Apple is up 70%.  More can be read in today’s Wall Street Journal http://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-ascent-from-niche-stock-to-juggernaut-1425855756 , Apple is expected to unveil its watch today, which is expected to be the hottest wearable technology

 

Weather:

This week looks to be beautiful.  How could you not come back to work after this weekend feeling recharged from some sunlight and warmth?  Watch out, today is a great day!  This week looks to be 60-70 degrees and sunny every day.  It is not even supposed to freeze overnight.  In addition the time changed on Sunday, so if this morning came a little quicker than normal you know why.

 

Grain Markets @ 10:32am

May Corn +2 ½ @3.88 ½ 

May Beans +8 ¾ @9.93 ¾ 

 

Grain:

Markets open stronger, and backing off a bit, but settling in and maintaining a firmer tone.  Lack of news/headlines in grain keeps the market steady to lower, there is just not much in the news to get anyone ready to move.  This might give us some opportunity for a weather story.  A quiet market is looking for something to latch on to.  We also can look to the month end planting intentions report.  It may be a market mover.

 

With Tax time upon us, and the numbers on your desk, it may be a great time to refigure those break even numbers for your operation.  Knowing the real numbers helps in making your marketing decisions.

 

Reminder March contracts expire this Friday.

 

Corn: Last week was negative with a rebound this morning, yet corn continues to stay in its range of 3.85-3.91 refusing to go anywhere.  Bears keep talking about potential export issues due to strength in the US dollar, or slipping ethanol demand as crude remains low.  But the bulls anxiously await a weather story which could include some planting delays.  Corn basis remains strong, and it may be worth looking to limit some of your basis risk on corn in the bin.

 

Beans: it seems “trucker strikes” remain the top story, but the premium has quickly dissipated as resolution continues.  Fund liquidation has continued to beat down beans.  As with corn the US Dollar strength affects US exports of beans.  Tuesday this week USDA will update supply and demand at 11am.

 

For Fun:

While doing a real estate search for my father’s property I stumbled across Estately who has a blog about what each state has “more of”….per capita, than any other.  Nebraska having the most high school graduates seems pretty positive when you read some of the other states.  For example Arizona having the most UFO sightings per capita, and Missouri having the most Meth Lab incidents per capita.  Though I close runner up to Nebraska might be a state leading the way in “craft beer production”.”  To read more http://blog.estately.com/

image002

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

March 2, 2015 Leave a comment


Grain Markets

3/2/15 10:59am

May Corn -4 ½ @ 3.88 ¾

May Beans -14 ¼ @ 10.17 ½

 

Good Morning!

 

In the International news:

–          China cuts interest rates by .25% just 4 months after last reduction.  More can be read at the Wall Street Journal (http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rate-cut-renews-economic-concerns-1425242816 )

–          Boris Nemtsov/Putin Critics was assassinated, Fear in Russia, more can be read in the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/01/world/europe/killing-of-boris-nemtsov-putin-critic-breeds-fear-in-russia.html?_r=0 )

 

Grain:

Not a lot of news in grain to speak of, low overnight volume, and exports were low across the board last week.  CVA switched basis levels to the May, as did many others in the area.  Weather looks to trend warmer as the week progresses, which is a welcomed change.

 

Corn:

Quiet overnight volume, looking for the roll form Mar to the May, the spread currently sitting at 9.5 cents .  Farmers are busy making crop insurance decisions.  Last week corn showed strength really form the strength in beans.  Look for some pretty hefty resistance at the $4.00 level.  CVA switched basis levels to the May, as did many others in the area.

 

Beans:

Morning session started off seeing a reaction to the Brazilian truck strike being resolved in most areas as roads begin opening up.  Trucks are now reaching ports and traffic is getting back to normal report say.  Last week’s run up was mostly due to the strikes.  Seems to be giving back a good portion this am.

 

For Fun:

As I was reading USA Today last week, I noticed a story which left me thinking….What?!?!  With KFC soon to release “Seattle’s Best” coffees they are testing a “Scoff-ee cup” which are a range of edible cups  This so far only in U.K Restaurants.  An edible cookie coffee cup, I think I will pass.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/25/kfc-edible-coffee-cup-fast-food-restaurants/23994315/

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Filed under News Tagged with , ,

Market Report

February 25, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets in general have been more supportive, 100 day moving average for both corn and beans remains supportive.  Though today has shown to be less supportive.

 

11:30am 2/23/15

Corn -6 ¼ @ 3.79

Beans-5 @ 9.94 ¼ 

 

Corn:  

Corn has been trading in an extremely narrow range of about 10 cents, when dropping down to support it  seems new buyers quickly come in keeping it supported.  When speaking to producers people are beginning to feel more optimistic and it seems people are looking for a reason to buy, “just give me a reason.”  It seems any weather fear or bullish headline could attract some short term buyers.  Demand remains strong in both exports and ethanol.  Moving forward “supply” may be very important.

 

Corn seemed to take a beating  so far this morning pushing below the 3.80 support line for the first time in a week.  Closing below definitely creates some concern, and gives a new trading range (much wider).

 

Beans:

As we head into a more historically bullish time period and the ag forums unexpectedly low ’15 planted acreage estimate of 83.5 Million, we have yet to see a major bullish response.  If demand remains high, and we receive any bullish news we may receive some opportunities.  Brazil there are talks of truckers protesting high diesel prices, and roadways in Mato Grosso have been experiencing delays/stand stills.

 

Interesting:


US TODAY “Deer Earning Dive on Ag Sag

Deere & Co. said its net income was $386.8 million, or $1.12 per share, for the quarter that ended Jan. 31., the equipment-maker’s first fiscal quarter of 2015.That was a drop of 43% from the year-earlier net income of $681.1 million, or $1.81 per share.  “Deere’s first-quarter performance reflected sluggish conditions in the global farm sector, which reduced demand for agricultural machinery, particularly larger models, and led to lower sales and income,” said CEO Samuel Allen.

Read it all here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/02/20/deere-quarterly-earnings/23726911/

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Filed under News Tagged with , ,

Market Report

February 19, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets 9:58am 2/19/15

Corn +5 ¼ @3.89

Beans +10 @ 10.05 ¾ 

 

This week:

A short week for the trade with a holiday on Monday, traders came back ready to go with Tuesday’s NOPA Crush Report.  Report came in somewhat flat with the exception of reporting a record January.  This and a bump in crude caused some excitement and a nice bump for both corn and beans.  In fact crude closed above resistance which may have indicated crude may head on up, however sellers came in and quickly pounded it back down into the red the next day and made no attempts to rally back….. a “turn around Tuesday” feel on Weds as the markets quickly back tracked, and crude dropped back into the red and the US dollar remained strong.

 

This morning the overnight session pushed beans into the green and grains in general have been fighting to hold.  Toggling between green and red for the first ½ hour this am, but well into the green by 9:30am.  This volatility may provide some marketing opportunities for us on the upswing, and market order or offers can be a win.  With farmers anxious to sell on a rally, it is likely basis will break,  In other words if the market continues to rally we may see basis slip 5 to 10 cents.  It may be wise to limit some basis risk by simply using a basis contract or our Extended Price program to lock in your basis.

 

Looking forward:

USDA 2015 Ag Outlook Forum will take center stage today and tomorrow, so look for projections and estimates.  This is what I have seen so far, and the beans surprised me a bit, this may give us some strength in beans today, however bean numbers may come up.

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  2015 Corn planting projected at 89.0 mln acres vs 2014’s 90.6 mln acres

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  2015 Soybean planting projected at 83.5 mln acres vs 2014’s 83.7 mln acres

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  2015 projection for all wheat seeding at 55.5 mln acres down -1.3 mln acres from 2014

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  all cotton planting for 2015 seen at 9.70 mln acres off 1.3 mln acres from the 2014 crop

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  Average US corn prices in 15/16 marketing year are seen at $3.50 per bushel, soybean prices to average $9.00/bu

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  Average US wheat prices in 15/16 marketing year are seen at $5.10 per bushel

 

We will also be seeing 3 different reports over the next 30-45 days, which may provide some added opportunity to capitalize on a “market reaction.”

Warren Buffet and Deere: 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recently disclosed in federal filings that they had accumulated over 17 million shares of Deere & Co stock worth over $1.5 billion.

For Fun:

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Tootsie Pop?

Mathematicians at New York University conducted a very important experiment to find out exactly how many licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop. Drum roll, please.

One thousand.

For those patient enough to not take a bite, graduate student Jinzi Mac Huang determined it would take 1,000 licks to make it through one centimeter of candy, which is approximately half the length of one Tootsie Pop. The study was done to explore the effects of dissolving materials within a fluid flow, such as rocks in geological environments and pills for pharmaceutical applications. The lollipop angle was just a fun side effect.

Read more here: https://gma.yahoo.com/mathematicians-discover-many-licks-takes-center-tootsie-pop-224356597–abc-news-Recipes.html

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Filed under Community Tagged with , , ,

Grain Market Report

February 9, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets 2/9/15 @ 10:13am:

Corn +5 ¼ @ 3.91

Beans +4 ¾ 9.78 ¼

 

Political:

The steelworkers strike appears to have worsened over the weekend as well with another 1,440 workers walking out of BP refineries in Ohio and Indiana. We now have about 13% of US refining capacity being impacted by the labor strike in the energy sector. Rumors are Shell has now officially walked away from the talks, which could cause the strike to spread to even more plants.

 

Market Info:

A mixed trade so far this morning as weather remains mostly favorable, South America seeing rains over the weekend with more forecasted this week.

–          Exports: USDA announces the sale of 120,000 MT of beans to China for 14/15 marketing year.

–          The USDA Crop Report is tomorrow at 11am.

–          Goldman roll continues this week, if you plan to roll any HTA’s it’s a good time to place the order.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Filed under News Tagged with , , , ,

Markets Close

January 12, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets upon close 1/12/15

Mar Corn +1 ¾ @ 4.02

Mar Beans -36 ¼ @ 10.16

 

CORN

 

USDA estimated 2014’s corn production at 14.216 billion bushels, down 191

million bushels from its November estimate. Farmers harvested 83.1 million

acres with a record national average yield of 171 bushels per acre. That’s 2.4

bpa lower than USDA’s November estimate.

 

Corn stocks as of December 1, at 11.2 billion bushels, are 7% higher than

during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its quarterly Grain Stocks

report. Of total stocks, 7.09 bb are stored on farm, up 11% from last year. The

remainder, 4.12 bb, is stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance from

September to November 2014 indicated demand of 4.25 bb, compared to 4.29 bb the

prior year.

 

USDA’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year at

1.877 bb, down 121 mb from USDA’s December estimate of 1.998 bb. After USDA

incorporated the revised production estimate, it trimmed 100 mb from feed and

residual demand and added 25 mb of demand for ethanol and food, seed, and

industrial use. USDA said the extra corn use for ethanol was to offset a

decline in sorghum use for ethanol. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at

13.8% compared to 14.6% in December.

 

Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks 189.15 million metric tons, down a

little more than 3 mmt from last month on the decline in U.S. production. USDA

left Brazil, Argentina and China’s corn production forecasts unchanged. USDA

anticipates that China will import 2 mmt of corn, down from 3.28 mmt last year.

 

The global stocks-to-use ration came in at 19.5% compared to 19.8% last

month.

 

SOYBEANS

 

Farmers produced 3.969 billion bushels of soybeans, USDA said in its Annual

Crop Production report. It’s nearly identical with the average pre-report

estimate but slightly higher than the November forecast. USDA said farmers

harvested 83.1 million acres, a record, with a national average yield of 47.8

bpa, which is 0.3 bpa higher than the previous estimate and also a record. USDA

may update the soybean production figure in its September 2015 quarterly stocks

report.

 

There are 2.52 bb in storage, up 17% from a year earlier, according to the

Grain Stocks report. Farmers are holding 1.22 bb on farm, up 28% from the

previous year, while 1.31 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance

for September through November totaled 1.54 bb, up 14% from the same period a

year earlier.

 

The WASDE report left ending stocks unchanged at 410 mb. USDA incorporated

the slightly larger production estimate, which was offset by a 10 mb increase

in exports and 1 mb increase in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio was

unchanged at 11.2%.

 

Globally, USDA increased its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 0.91 mmt

to 90.8 mmt. It estimates Brazil’s production at 95.5 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from

December, and Argentina’s production at 55 mmt, unchanged from December. Global

ending stocks-to-use grew to 31.7% from last month’s 31.4%.

 

 

 

 

January 12th Pre-Report Table
Quarterly Stocks
Dec 1 Average Estimate Estimate Range Sep 1 Stocks Dec 1 ’13
Stocks Stocks
Corn 11.203 11.123 10.820-11.325 1.236 10.453
Soybeans 2.524 2.590 2.400-2.742 0.092 2.154
Wheat 1.525 1.499 1.400-1.585 1.914 1.475
2014/15 US Production
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA    Nov ’14
January
Corn 14.216 14.349 14.171-14.554 14.407
    Yield 171.0 173.3 171.3-174.3 173.4
Soybeans 3.969 3.956 3.844-4.020 3.958
    Yield 47.8 47.6 46.8-48.2 47.5
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA     Dec ’14
January
Corn 1.877 1.927 1.710-2.081 1.998
Soybeans 0.410 0.393 0.355-0.452 0.410
Wheat 0.687 0.666 0.636-0.699 0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA     Dec ’14
January
Corn 189.150 191.19 186.50-193.00 192.20
Soybeans 90.780 89.35 87.40-90.55 89.87
Wheat 196.000 194.33 190.90-196.00 194.90
Stocks, Production, Carryout numbers in bil bu.   Acres in millions.   Source: Rueters
US numbers in bil bu.  World numbers in million metric tons.   Source: Rueters
Compiled by Thomas Meierotto, RJO’Brien-Iowa Office, tmeierotto@rjobrien.com

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

 

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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