Grain Markets

December 8, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets as of 9:36am 12/8/14

Mar Corn +3 ½ @ 3.98 ½

Jan Beans +8 ½ @ 10.44 ½

 

Corn: The corn market is leading the upside, as technical buying interest has pushed March Corn back up toward the 4.00 level.  Which may prove to be a good time to make a corn sale or an offer at a higher level.

 

We are also seeing good weather in South America, the US dollar holding firm, and trade anticipating Wednesday’s USDA Crop Report.

 

Beans: A clear head and shoulder pattern was finished last week in the beans, typically a bearish sign for the technical traders, the market seems to have a firmer tone toward the end of last week into this week.  The bulls need to pierce resistance at the Nov. 26 high at $10.54 3/4 to break the recent downtrend pattern.

 

$13.33     — the contract high

$10.24 1/4 — the 10-day moving average

$10.28 3/4 — the 20-day moving average

$10.11 1/4 — the 40-day moving average

$9.04     — the contract low

 

Fun:  For you numbers folks, ever wonder how Santa does it?  I did, so here is what I found out.

  1. Due to international time zones, our modern day Santa Claus actually has 31 hoursto deliver presents to all the children of the world.
  2. But to do so, he’ll need to travel at a rate of 4,796,250 MPH!

So that’s how he does it!

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

December 1, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets fairly inactive today coming back from the Thanksgiving break.  However Wheat had an eventful day closing +29, thus providing some support for other grains.

 

Markets at close

Corn – ¼ @ 3.75 ½

Beans +1 @ 10.17

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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November 10, 2014 Leave a comment


USDA Report released today at 11am, markets opened strong this morning positioning prior to the report.  Corn remains strong while beans turned weaker.

 

As of 11:30am

Dec Corn +6 @3.73 1/2

Jan Beans -2 @ 10.34 ¾

 

2014/15 US Production
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 14.407 14.551 14.242-14.842 14.475
    Yield 173.4 175.2 171.4-178.6 174.2
Soybeans 3.958 3.967 3.903-4.064 3.927
    Yield 47.5 47.6 46.8-48.7 47.1
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 2.008 2.135 1.850-2.282 2.081
Soybeans 0.450 0.442 0.403-0.513 0.450
Wheat 0.644 0.660 0.634-0.682 0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 191.500 190.770 185.600-194.180 190.580
Soybeans 90.280 90.370 89.500-92.550 90.670
Wheat 192.900 192.150 189.790-196.400 192.590

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Prices

October 27, 2014 Leave a comment


Grains opened weaker this am with additional strength found this afternoon markets closing with beans up 26 3/4 at 10.04, and corn up 10 at 3.63.

Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Market Report

October 20, 2014 Leave a comment


Producers working steadily in the fields on harvest, with possible rain in the area for Weds.  Still some elevators/processors paying additional basis $ for early delivery on corn.  Most producers are too busy with beans to deliver corn, so there is a bit of a premium.  However this premium will likely disappear once corn harvest begins and corn bushels start rolling in.

 

Some strength in the market last week was attributed to new buyers in the grain, which could be some re-allocation from the stock market which seems to be suffering some from the politics and the Ebola scare.  We lost some of this strength overnight, but seem to remain pretty steady this morning.

 

Markets @ 9:14am 10/20/14

Corn -5 @ 3.43

Beans -12 ½ @ 9.39 ¼

 

Marketing idea:  On over run bushels/bushels you cannot store on farm.  Many producers either sell these extra bushels, or pay monthly storage.  A producer can sell the grain and buy it back on the board to remain in the market without paying storage. This strategy mimics storage and saves fees.  For more information simply contact CVA.

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Market Prices

October 13, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets opened mixed this morning after digesting Friday’s USDA report.  But finding strength by the close.  The trade is wondering where this is coming from.  It seems to be more than just the fact that this is a US holiday, with light volume expected, we have actually seen volume pick up a little with the rally building.

 

Stock markets have come off their highs and might have some asset managers moving some money into other sectors for now, possibly even these much cheaper grain markets?  Also with the US dollar losing some strength we may see more foreign buyers.

 

Markets at close

Corn +12 @ 3.46

Beans +22 ¾ @ 9.45 ¼

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Markets

September 2, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets 9/2/14 @10:55am

Dec Corn -3/4 @ 3.64

Nov Beans +11 ¾ @ 10.36

 

Corn story continues to look the same with estimates talking significant supply. The bears continue to talk about a humongous US crop that is receiving almost perfect weather conditions.  Many analysts are still pushing their yield estimates even higher, and many US producers are reporting “better than expected” yields, placing even more downward pressure on prices.

 

Beans continue to focus on old crop, however bears focus on the longer term picture and that’s the record yield estimates in the US and the anticipated 5-6% additional acres in South America.  Which doesn’t paint a pretty picture for new crop prices.  I don’t want to sound so pessimistic but we need a technical rally, or some bullish news to change the direction of the market.

 

Idea – for producers with a current hedge in place, a great way to add some additional dollars to your bottom line is to take advantage of the “carry in the market”

FOR EXAMPLE  if the producer can store CORN until June, they can roll from Dec to July and pick up 27-28 cents

 

What about basis?

The biggest news seems to be current basis levels, as it seems like commercials are having a time sourcing the bushels they need at the current price levels.  Pre-harvest bushels have been bid at a premium.  However…. come harvest time, old crop bushels and new crop bushels are one of the same and the biggest risk to producers could be the upcoming harvest basis.

 

Idea – If producers have old crop corn or beans it seems like the perfect opportunity to liquidate some of that stored old crop while basis levels are so strong.  The bean basis appears to be the strongest, come harvest times basis levels may slip rather quickly.

 

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

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Grain Market Update

August 18, 2014 Leave a comment


Corn +2 @ 3.67 ¾

New Corn +1 @ 3.78

 

Beans unchanged @ 10.52

 

Corn

  • Weather – Can the weather get much better across the Corn Belt?  75 degree weather and good rainfall in mid-August
  • USDA report is behind us and the next focal point is Septembers Quarterly Stocks report.  Supply appears to continue increasing while demand remains strong.
  • Funds – The funds do not seem to be doing much of anything, but waiting to see.  Still currently holding a net long position, and the market continues to chop, not knowing whether to move up or down.  If the funds decide to exit, corn could continue to fall.  However, Friday’s close gave some bullish news giving us a few cents to the upside.  These short term rallies might be an opportunity for producers to make a sale or two.  It sure seems the sellers are quick to react and take back those rallies.  There just does not seem to be enough buyers to continue any upward momentum.
  • Basis – Keep a close eye on basis in your area, basis remains fairly steady.  It is likely area consumers such as ethanol plants are supporting the basis levels.  However, once they build an adequate supply we may see basis aggressively slip downward.  If a producer sees a basis level they like, LOCK IT IN.  I suspect the downside risk for basis is one to be concerned about.

 

Beans

  • Production – Weather plays a major part in final production, however with the mild temperatures and adequate rainfall, it’s hard not to see the bean crop is getting larger.  What is the long term price risk here?  Brazil will be planting in a few weeks and there is already talk of them planting 5-6% more.  Beans continue to show signs of weakness in the trade.  Any signs of rally might warrant a sale opportunity at a profitable level.

 

Pro Farmer tour

2014 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Schedule

 

Eastern Tour stops:

Sunday, Aug. 17 – Columbus, Ohio

Monday, Aug. 18 – Fishers, Ind.

Tuesday, Aug. 19 – Bloomington, Ill.

Wednesday, Aug. 20 – Coralville, Iowa

Thursday, Aug. 21 – Rochester, Minn.

 

 

Western Tour stops:

Sunday, Aug. 17 – Sioux Falls, S.D.

Monday, Aug. 18 – Grand Island, Neb.

Tuesday, Aug. 19 – Nebraska City, Neb.

Wednesday, Aug. 20 – Spencer, Iowa

Thursday, Aug. 21 – Rochester, Minn.

 

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

__________ Information from ESET Endpoint Antivirus,

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Grain Report

August 14, 2014 Leave a comment


8/14/14 @ 8:17am

 

  • With the monthly Supply and Demand numbers revealed on 11/12/14, corn closed 1-2c higher and beans -14c on that day.  But not before a substantial reaction dropping corn -9 and beans -28.  Often times the market trade volume increases and causes a substantial move at least for a short while.  These report days represent substantial opportunities for hedgers.
  • The quick summary below shows the projected corn yield below market expectations and soybean carryout above the average market estimates.   While the yield estimates fell a bit short of estimate, however showing an increase from USDA’s July report.

 

  • As of this writing this morning corn is even @3.58 and beans are +1 @ 10.47
  • The feel in the market is still that a large crop is out there.   The USDA has a tendency to stair step into large crops meaning in future reports the yield estimates could continue to grow.   This week may be a great time for farmers to clean up any remaining old crop and get more coverage on the books for the coming crop years.

For more information, contact Greg Mockenhaupt at CVA East Hub.

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Grain Prices

August 11, 2014 Leave a comment


-The USDA will issue their August Supply and Demand report tomorrow morning at 11:00am. The yield numbers will be monitored closely as this is the first report this year that will incorporate field data into yield estimates. Metrics such as harvestable ears, ear weight, and kernel counts where appropriate will be used to determine what yields could look like under normal growing conditions.

 

-Traders will position themselves ahead of tomorrow morning’s trade. Overall, we shouldn’t see any convincing moves either direction ahead of tomorrow.

 

-Soybeans had a nice finish Friday, which could provide a nice opportunity for producers to get some more harvest sales on prior to tomorrow’s numbers.

 

Markets 8/11/14 @ 9:56am

Sept Corn +5 @ 3.57

Dec Corn +4 @ 3.80 ½

 

Nov Beans – ½ @ 10.84 ¼

 

Strategy: Consider locking in a sale or using options to lock in a floor prior to the report.

 

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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