Grain Market Update

August 18, 2014 Leave a comment


Corn +2 @ 3.67 ¾

New Corn +1 @ 3.78

 

Beans unchanged @ 10.52

 

Corn

  • Weather – Can the weather get much better across the Corn Belt?  75 degree weather and good rainfall in mid-August
  • USDA report is behind us and the next focal point is Septembers Quarterly Stocks report.  Supply appears to continue increasing while demand remains strong.
  • Funds – The funds do not seem to be doing much of anything, but waiting to see.  Still currently holding a net long position, and the market continues to chop, not knowing whether to move up or down.  If the funds decide to exit, corn could continue to fall.  However, Friday’s close gave some bullish news giving us a few cents to the upside.  These short term rallies might be an opportunity for producers to make a sale or two.  It sure seems the sellers are quick to react and take back those rallies.  There just does not seem to be enough buyers to continue any upward momentum.
  • Basis – Keep a close eye on basis in your area, basis remains fairly steady.  It is likely area consumers such as ethanol plants are supporting the basis levels.  However, once they build an adequate supply we may see basis aggressively slip downward.  If a producer sees a basis level they like, LOCK IT IN.  I suspect the downside risk for basis is one to be concerned about.

 

Beans

  • Production – Weather plays a major part in final production, however with the mild temperatures and adequate rainfall, it’s hard not to see the bean crop is getting larger.  What is the long term price risk here?  Brazil will be planting in a few weeks and there is already talk of them planting 5-6% more.  Beans continue to show signs of weakness in the trade.  Any signs of rally might warrant a sale opportunity at a profitable level.

 

Pro Farmer tour

2014 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Schedule

 

Eastern Tour stops:

Sunday, Aug. 17 – Columbus, Ohio

Monday, Aug. 18 – Fishers, Ind.

Tuesday, Aug. 19 – Bloomington, Ill.

Wednesday, Aug. 20 – Coralville, Iowa

Thursday, Aug. 21 – Rochester, Minn.

 

 

Western Tour stops:

Sunday, Aug. 17 – Sioux Falls, S.D.

Monday, Aug. 18 – Grand Island, Neb.

Tuesday, Aug. 19 – Nebraska City, Neb.

Wednesday, Aug. 20 – Spencer, Iowa

Thursday, Aug. 21 – Rochester, Minn.

 

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

__________ Information from ESET Endpoint Antivirus,

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Grain Report

August 14, 2014 Leave a comment


8/14/14 @ 8:17am

 

  • With the monthly Supply and Demand numbers revealed on 11/12/14, corn closed 1-2c higher and beans -14c on that day.  But not before a substantial reaction dropping corn -9 and beans -28.  Often times the market trade volume increases and causes a substantial move at least for a short while.  These report days represent substantial opportunities for hedgers.
  • The quick summary below shows the projected corn yield below market expectations and soybean carryout above the average market estimates.   While the yield estimates fell a bit short of estimate, however showing an increase from USDA’s July report.

 

  • As of this writing this morning corn is even @3.58 and beans are +1 @ 10.47
  • The feel in the market is still that a large crop is out there.   The USDA has a tendency to stair step into large crops meaning in future reports the yield estimates could continue to grow.   This week may be a great time for farmers to clean up any remaining old crop and get more coverage on the books for the coming crop years.

For more information, contact Greg Mockenhaupt at CVA East Hub.

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