Market Report

Markets

Dow -70.92
S&P -2.72
NASDAQ -3.92

The U.S Stock market opens fairly flat this morning, slipping into the morning.  July has been a rough month for commodities which continue their negative streak this morning.  Copper and Aluminum fall to 6 year lows.

Oil opened deep in the red, slipping to levels not seen since March.  Crude’s supply and demand picture looking bearish with China being the second largest oil consumer.  Concerns about the condition of the Chinese economy continues to leave a bearish tone for many investors.

Greek share prices plunged today after trading resumed in Athens following a five-week halt.  The Athex Composite earlier today traded as low as about 615, its lowest level in about three years.

Grain Markets 9:56am

Corn -2 ¼ @ $3.68 ¼
Dec Corn -2 ½ @ $3.78 ¾
Beans -3/4 @ $9.80
Nov Beans -3 @ $9.37 ¼

Weather

Weather this week looks good for crops in the field with temps in the 80’s and a chance of rain each day.

Corn/Beans

It seems the negative direction continues this week.  Primarily concerns of Chinese demand due to economic uncertainty, the continued strength in the U.S Dollar makes South American corn look cheap and potentially hurting U.S Exports, there just doesn’t seem to be a reason to be bullish. In addition, the USDA crop report is coming August 12^th.

Weather news could be a factor, however, the weather across the Midwest continues to be a non-event.

Strategy:  For those of you currently holding a corn hedge/HTA we are consistently an opportunity to roll from December to March for about 10-11 cents.  If you are planning to carry some of your corn into January or later, now may be the time to lock in the carry.  (Example $4.50 Dec Hedge, roll to March adds .11 = $4.61)

Basis:  As the market pushes down, we may see basis opportunities, with harvest approaching, it is going to be time to start watching basis levels, and setting those pre-harvest.

For Fun:

It’s been a year since our trip to Universal Studios, when we had the opportunity to go to “Springfield” and stop by Duff’s Tavern for a “Duff” beer.  No chance of buying one to go, Orlando and Los Angeles are currently the only place you can go get yourself a bottle of the fictitious beer.  Until now…. there was no discussion of making it commercially available, until recently Fox has decided to begin the venture starting internationally!

Quoted below from The Wall Street Journal

“For decades, real beer sellers from Australia to Germany to Colombia have been trying to capitalize on all this fake marketing by putting real versions of Duff Beer into the market—only to be shut down after hearing from lawyers for “Simpsons” owner 21st Century Fox.

But this week, the media giant is entering the Duff Beer business itself—beginning in Chile, with plans to roll out to more of South America and Europe by early next year.

The company has been consulting with a brewmaster to get the flavor just right, and plans subtle packaging with no obvious nods to the TV show—just an exact replica of the cartoon brew that will play like an inside joke for Simpsons superfans.

As for the domestic market, outside of the “Simpsons” section of Universal’s theme parks in Orlando and Los Angeles, no Duff is available in the U.S., but Fox isn’t ruling it out.

“I think there’s potential to have Duff everywhere in the world,” said Jeffrey Godsick, president of the media company’s consumer products division. (21st Century Fox and Wall Street Journal-owner News Corp were part of the same company until mid-2013.)

The global thirst for Duff is understandable. “The Simpsons” is the longest-running scripted series in television history, and so widely distributed that Fox executives say an episode is airing somewhere in the world, at all times, day or night, 365 days a year.”

You can read the rest here http://www.wsj.com/articles/duff-beer-tries-to-tap-markets-outside-springfield-1436553842

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report

Markets

The big news on Monday was the substantial dip in the Chinese stock market, that trend continued and the 3 day sell of knocks 11% off the Shanghai Composite.  Despite government efforts to reverse the trend, the Chinese stock market continues to decline since peaking on June 12^th.

Commodities had a significant sell of yesterday pulling down gold, silver, copper, cotton, soybeans, corn, cattle, and Crude oil futures have continued to slide to a new 4 month low near $47 a barrel, but headed back in to positive territory midday today.

U.S Dollar strengthens again today, as many investors look for the fed to increase interest as early as September.

Ford reported a 46% increase in net income for Q2, logging its largest quarterly profit ever for North America.

Grain Markets 12:39pm

Corn -2 @ 3.71
Dec Corn -2 $3.81 ½
Beans +10 ¼ @ $9.71 1/2
Nov Beans +5 ¾ @ $9.39

Crop condition was raised from 69% to 70% good to Excellent on corn as compared to last years 75%, and soybeans were left alone at 62% good to excellent as compared to last years 71%

Corn

December Corn has lost .73 cents in the last 10 trading days, interestingly enough earlier this month, we went from the current trading level to the contract high in just 13 days.  We have literally went from $3.81 all the way up to $4.54 and back to $3.81 in 23 days.  Talk about a roller coaster ride.  There seems to be a lot of noise and no one is exactly sure what to hear, from a weather scare and flooding, to key fundamentals influencing world carry, Political, and of course the macro markets.  It seems they are all competing for attention.

A new gap was created yesterday.  We now have 2 gaps in the Dec ’15 corn contract, from a technical perspective we may see corn continue to trend down into contract lows prior to retracing those gaps.  Keep in mind the gap retracement could be post-harvest.

Strategy:  As the market dips, and affordable way to participate in upside potential on sold bushels is a simple “buy back strategy” utilizing options.  Which keeps capital risk low.

Beans:  Uncertainty in China w no doubt caused a lot of pain for the bean market yesterday seeing a 30 cent drop on Monday in Nov beans.   A bit of a turnaround Tuesday feel today though as beans gained at the open, but only up 5 cents at noon.  Beans are feeling a lot of pressure from the macro markets, fear of Chinese demand and the US Dollar making South America more appealing to international buyers.

Strategy: Beans may be a painful ride down, lock in a sale at a profitable level either cash or utilizing an HTA.  Bonus premium offers may be used to bring the value of the sale up.

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report

Market News

Dow +3.21
S&P -.05
Nasdaq +16.35

Crude remains below $52 a barrel but the US Dollar jumped over 100 again this morning and grain is feeling it. With a lot of short positions in the dollar a short covering rally could potentially push it even higher.

U.S. stocks rose slightly on this morning, continuing to advance after two consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32 points, or 0.2%, to 18090 and the S&P 500 index gained 3.4 points, or 0.2%, to 2105.  The Nasdaq Composite rose 22 points, or 0.4%, to 5018, climbing back above 5000 for the first time in nearly three weeks.

Apple Watch: As an Apple fan, the watch has me intrigued, and the release to pre-order was last week.  According to USA Today, Nearly 1 million people placed an order for an Apple Watch on the first day it was available, with most going for the cheapest model, a shopping research firm estimated.

Slice Intelligence said e-receipt data from 9,080 online shoppers indicate 957,000 people in the U.S. pre-ordered the smartwatch on Friday. On average, they ordered more than 1 watch (1.3), spending an average $503.83 a watch. An estimated 62% purchased the less-expensive Sport model.  More including a video here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/04/13/apple-watch-pre-orders-estimate/25696385/

Grain Markets:

Markets 11:18am
Corn -4 @ 3.73
Beans -2 @ 9.49 ½

The market opened this morning with a negative tone, with corn down and beans slightly up but moving quickly into negative territory.  KC Wheat is taking a pounding this morning down 27.  Continued strength in the U.S. Dollar could potentially reduce export demand significantly, especially as other countries’ currencies decline.

Corn: Corn feeling the pressure from wheat, corn trade seems a bit more uncertain lately with lack of news.  The bulls waiting for weather news and the bears talking of a good supply.  The only real news was the last USDA report which recently raised global ending stocks by 3.2 million metric tons.  It’s also a consideration that many farmers still have a substantial amount of crop still in the bin waiting for an opportunity to cash in on a rally.  The funds continue to add short positions driving down corn, however, at some point these shorts will have to cover and cause a short covering rally.  This could be an opportunity for area producers.  Finally, the first USDA planting progress report will be today at 3:00pm.

Beans: Beans may be finding some support from oil this morning, but grain remain soft.  Last week beans fell over .30 and the speculators are short.  The bearish attitude comes from strength in the dollar threatening future exports, meals prices under pressure and crush margins being down.  The market tone on beans remains negative for now.  Many keep an eye on South American harvest with Brazil nearing the end at 85%, and Argentina talking about record yields in areas now 25% harvested.

For Fun:

Dangerous Toys

Jarts Lawn Darts – I remember as a kid chucking these aerodynamic darts with metal tips and watching the soar into the sky trying to put them into the circle on the ground….you know….the one the other team is standing right next to!  As one of my buddy’s notices its coming right at him and dives out of the way laughing at the near miss as the dart “thumps” sticking into the ground 2 feet away.  It’s not like I was a little guy, and my big looping under armed throws were not exactly coordinated, and that dart would fly 30 feet straight up in the air sometimes even landing behind me, come on guys, how high can you get it!  Banned!  What the heck is wrong with people!  I am still alive…..  Looking back what the heck was wrong with us, our parents didn’t seem worried.  But as a parent, I now have visions of dart poked into my kid’s brain because he took a lawn dart to the head and would never dream of buying a set.

Creepy Crawlers – Goo that you put into a small oven to make plastic bugs, basically napalm. Let’s dream up a toy for children, shall we? Let’s start with plastic goop the consistency of syrup and add an electric-powered mold that heats to 300 degrees.  Giving off potentially deadly fumes right at the dining room table!  I loved this thing!  The goop never lasted long enough and the burn blisters hurt, but I knew it was hot, and knew I could burn myself.  Which is key to teaching kids to use some common sense….since everything in this world is not safe.  I actually found one of these things for my kids and we had blast making our own bugs. (The girl’s version – Easy Bake Oven)

Slip N Slide – A 16 foot sheet of plastic with an inflatable stop at the end, turns out larger folks (adults, teens) have a little more momentum and the abrupt stop at the end caused permanent spine injuries for some.  I have found by arching your back you simply sail right over the stop and onto the grass.  You got to plan these things out….I still love our slip n slide.

WARNING – These toys are dangerous, follow all instructions provided by manufacturer and do not try this at home.  The above was done by a trained professional.

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report

Markets

4/6/15 @ 10:01am
Dow +98.50
S&P +12.24
Nasdaq +23.81

U.S Dollar: On Friday, the dollar took its biggest tumble in almost two weeks following slower-than-expected U.S. job growth for March. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls grew by 126,000. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 248,000.

The uncertain growth outlook has investors pushing back their expectations for when the Fed will raise interest rates. The Fed has kept the federal-funds target rate near zero since December 2008 to help the economy regain momentum after the financial crisis.

This could be the end of the U.S Dollar rally, but if not….the uncertainty surely makes it less appealing to many investors.

Go Daddy Goes Public 4/1/15: The “name” in the industry, with little significant competition.  You may recognize the name, the company is second to none when it comes to marketing, from super bowl commercials to NASCAR.  Go Daddy has done a great job of marketing, maybe not such a great job at making money, sporting $1.5 Billion in debt as of Dec 31, 2014.  This is a 20 year old company that hasn’t made money in the last 6 years.  IPO Pricing was $20 and bouncing 33% the day of the open.  It seems many were interested in owning a share, but where do we go from here.

Read more here: http://www.businessinsider.com/godaddy-is-ipoing-after-18-years-of-not-turning-a-profit-2015-3

Grain Markets 

4/6/15 @ 10.01am
May Corn -1 ¾ @ 3.84 ¾
Dec Corn -1 ½ @ 4.09

May Beans -1 ½ @ 984 ½
Nov Beans -1 ¼ @ 9.73

With the USDA Planting Intentions reports out of the way the focus moves more towards weather.  Many hoping for a weather story, I am afraid there doesn’t appear to be any major weather concerns on the horizon.

Corn: Corn continues to rebound each day post report, I suspect May corn to continue its range bound ways moving forward $3.83-$4.00.  Looking at the charts from January till now, it is no possible to build a trend line going up or down.  The trend line remains flat.   Looking at Dec corn there may be some opportunities at $4.25 or even 4.35.  It good plan is continue reducing long term risk on these rallies.

Beans: Beans bounced nicely post report, but have found themselves to be very range bound and flat since.  The uncertainty continues and as there is lack of news, traders will have little to react to.  However, any bit of news is likely to cause some movement.  We keep an eye on South American harvest as well as U.S Planting.  The concern moving forward would be another record crop for 2015 resulting in an even larger carryout, which could drive the price of beans down significantly.  Still plenty of “weather” between now and harvest, which may provide a chance to make a sale or 2.

For Fun: Easter is over, and the weather was amazing.  Proved to be the perfect time for family and a good ol’ Easter egg hunt!  Hope it was as nice for you as it was for my family.

Pontiac Trans Am: Thinking back to the 70’s the Pontiac Firebird reminds me of Burt Reynolds in Smokey and the Bandit!  The good ‘ol days, when you could jump your car over a broken apart bridge and successfully land on the other side, with you and your car undamaged.  The original ’77 Pontiac Trans Am sold for $450,000 at auction.  Though it was only expected to sell for $60k-$80k

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/16/autos/burt-reynolds-smokey-bandit-trans-am/

When I saw the Pontiac Trans Am was to be re-released in 2015, I was takin back in time… and was overcome with childhood memories of Hot wheels, Smokey and the Bandit, “T-Tops”, and my dad’s muscle car.  When you see pictures you will be taken back too.

The new release 2015 Pontiac Trans Am from company shall soon be available in either coupe or convertible trims and in Firebird Trans Am or the V6 engine trim levels. The Trans Am’s base model is equipped with a 3.7l V6 engine which generates well above 305hp and a subsequent 280lb-ft of torque while on the other hand the Firebird comes with a 5.0l V8 engine that can produce 420hp and subsequently 390lb-ft of torque.  Custom Interior options, will make anyone drool.

For all the pictures click here: http://pontiacfan.com/2015-pontiac-trans-am-specs-price/

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report

Grain Markets

3/2/15 10:59am

May Corn -4 ½ @ 3.88 ¾

May Beans -14 ¼ @ 10.17 ½

Good Morning!

In the International news:

–          China cuts interest rates by .25% just 4 months after last reduction.  More can be read at the Wall Street Journal (http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rate-cut-renews-economic-concerns-1425242816 )

–          Boris Nemtsov/Putin Critics was assassinated, Fear in Russia, more can be read in the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/01/world/europe/killing-of-boris-nemtsov-putin-critic-breeds-fear-in-russia.html?_r=0 )

Grain:

Not a lot of news in grain to speak of, low overnight volume, and exports were low across the board last week.  CVA switched basis levels to the May, as did many others in the area.  Weather looks to trend warmer as the week progresses, which is a welcomed change.

Corn:

Quiet overnight volume, looking for the roll form Mar to the May, the spread currently sitting at 9.5 cents .  Farmers are busy making crop insurance decisions.  Last week corn showed strength really form the strength in beans.  Look for some pretty hefty resistance at the $4.00 level.  CVA switched basis levels to the May, as did many others in the area.

Beans:

Morning session started off seeing a reaction to the Brazilian truck strike being resolved in most areas as roads begin opening up.  Trucks are now reaching ports and traffic is getting back to normal report say.  Last week’s run up was mostly due to the strikes.  Seems to be giving back a good portion this am.

For Fun:

As I was reading USA Today last week, I noticed a story which left me thinking….What?!?!  With KFC soon to release “Seattle’s Best” coffees they are testing a “Scoff-ee cup” which are a range of edible cups  This so far only in U.K Restaurants.  An edible cookie coffee cup, I think I will pass.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/25/kfc-edible-coffee-cup-fast-food-restaurants/23994315/

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com