Market Grain Report


Today the market has some negativity, funds are long and likely taking some profits prior to the USDA report at 11am.

 

Moving into the report the bulls are looking for opportunity.  We may see harvested acres adjusted downward.  1st quarter demand looks to be strong, but with a record crop year we may see some substantial stocks numbers to offset this.  It will be interesting to see where we land.

 

Strategy would be to enter in an offer, shoot for the sky.  You just never know the volatility this report can bring.  Report info to follow.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com


USDA Report released today at 11am, markets opened strong this morning positioning prior to the report.  Corn remains strong while beans turned weaker.

 

As of 11:30am

Dec Corn +6 @3.73 1/2

Jan Beans -2 @ 10.34 ¾

 

2014/15 US Production
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 14.407 14.551 14.242-14.842 14.475
    Yield 173.4 175.2 171.4-178.6 174.2
Soybeans 3.958 3.967 3.903-4.064 3.927
    Yield 47.5 47.6 46.8-48.7 47.1
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 2.008 2.135 1.850-2.282 2.081
Soybeans 0.450 0.442 0.403-0.513 0.450
Wheat 0.644 0.660 0.634-0.682 0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 191.500 190.770 185.600-194.180 190.580
Soybeans 90.280 90.370 89.500-92.550 90.670
Wheat 192.900 192.150 189.790-196.400 192.590

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Grain Markets


Markets as of 9/8/14 8:55am

Dec Corn -9 @ 3.47

Nov Beans -14 ¼ @ 10.07 ¼

Weather

 

Weather is expected to turn cooler this week. A cold front pushing down from Canada into the Northern Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday bringing our first chance of frost for the season for North Dakota and parts of Minnesota.  Many locations will see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal, however the crop threat seems limited, unless the frost pushes further south than expected.  With the change in weather comes the threat of thunderstorms thought the upper Midwest as well.

 

USDA

 

The USDA report is expected Thursday this week.  Many are expecting the USDA to increase yield expectations based on the many analyst reports.  Historically USDA tends to make smaller incremental adjustments through the September report, and move the estimates aggressively in the October and November once they have better proof of the yields.  We will see on Thursday how aggressive the USDA is with their report.

 

Corn

 

Bears await the USDA report this week looking for a significant bump in yield estimates of up to 5 to 7 BPA, which seems pretty hefty, regardless of the size, I think we would all be surprised if there was not some sort of increase from the USDA.

 

From a technical perspective, if the funds see the projected yields to be a money making opportunity, and the funds choose make sales, it is likely to see the price continue to head downwards.

 

It may be wise to develop a strategy for new crop bushels that must be delivered out of the field (overage).  Once producers bins are full, and crop is delivered out of the field, we may see basis weaken as elevators fill up.

 

Beans

 

The story is similar to corn, many await the USDA report to get a feel for where we are headed.  And again, analysts believe an increase in yield estimates is likely.  The concerns of early frost could cause a bit of a shift in the market.  Producers should look to capitalize on any up swings in the market caused by a weather scare.

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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