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Special Grain Report


Special Report
This morning the USDA issued their September Supply and Demand estimates for principle crops including corn, soybeans, and wheat. The following tables show a breakdown of the numbers:

 

Corn:

The USDA left the old crop carryout unchanged leaving all adjustments in the new crop category. Production was up over 300 mbu from the August numbers on a yield increase of 4.3 bpa. These numbers are slightly higher than what many thought the USDA would throw at us for the September report. Fortunately, new crop demand categories increased in the Feed (+75), Ethanol (+50), and Export (+25) categories, resulting in a 14/15 carryout increase of nearly 200 mbu.

Market Reaction: Negative. Regardless of what the USDA was going to say today, many are convinced that the highest production estimates are yet to come. Harvest numbers will confirm the USDA’s thoughts. We would expect our negative trend to continue.

 

Soybeans:

Old crop soybean carryout levels fell by 10 mbu with higher production expected in new crop. Yield numbers increased by 1.2 bpa resulting in production increases of nearly 100 mbu. Demand categories of Crush (+15) and Exports (+25) increased to partially offset the supply increases. The net result was an increase to the 14/15 carryout by 45 mbu.

Market Reaction: Negative. Similar to corn, the market is anticipating harvest results in the coming month that will confirm the size of the crop. Absent of any freezing weather in the next few weeks, the size of the bean crop looks to grow.

 

World Stocks:

14/15 World carryout continues to climb, which continues to drive the market into negative territory.  World Beans up 4.6, Corn up 2.1 (million Tonnes).

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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About katcountryhub
I am a graduate of Northeast Community College with a degree in journalism. I am married to Jeff Gilliland. We have two grown children, Justin and Whitney and four grandchildren, Grayce, Grayhm, Charli and Penelope. I will be covering Lyons, Decatur, Bancroft and Rosalie and am hoping to expand my horizons as time progresses!

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