Grain Market Report
December 15, 2014 Leave a comment
Markets at close 12/15/14
Mar Corn +1 @ 4.08 ½
Jan Beans -6 ¾ @ 10.39 ½
US Dollar is doing very well, up 10.9% in 2014, the stability of the US Dollar is inviting to investors to protect from uncertainty, or geopolitical risks in other countries. This strength is a concern for exports and manufacturing, and directly effects the value of grain for countries looking to export US Grains.
Weather: How does the weather this week look for Northeast Nebraska? Well moist and warm is how it looked for last week, which was a welcome break from the cold. But by end of day today the temperature is expected to drop and this rain becomes…….snow. High winds expected Tuesday with no moisture, and the temps to remain below freezing at least until Friday with our first shot at 37 degrees. Slight chances for Moisture Thursday and Friday.
Crude falling to sub -$60 levels could play a factor in the margins for ethanol, as crude continues to tumble and the prices at the gas pumps continue to fall, (in fact gas prices have declined for 80 straight days), ethanol could become less profitable and the grind may slow down. However new buyers in the corn provide some strength, and as long as the funds continue to show interest in grain we may see the rally continue.
Funds adds 10K longs and liquidates 21K shorts. As of Tuesday the fund was long 172K, when the player sheet thought they were long 162K, Commercials add 2K longs and 53K shorts. This week the Index fund adds 4K longs and nothing to the shorts.
NOPA crush numbers were released today
Crush: 161.2 million bushels, right near the low end of the trade estimate range, though up from 158.0 mbu last month, 160.1 mbu last year, andrecord number for Nov. Cumulative three-month crush stands at 419 mbu, down 7 mbu (-1.6%) from last year’s pace, with USDA looking for a 46 mbu (+2.6%) year-to-year crush increase.
SBO Stocks: 1005 million pounds, below even the lowest of trade estimates, though slightly above 966 mln lbs in Oct; Nov oil use at 1752 mln lbs right in line with LY. Massive drop in oil yield to 11.1 lbs/bu – worst since Mar ’10.
SBM Shipments: 835k short tons, up from 708k ST in October and 813k ST last November. Subsequent Nov domestic meal usage comes in at 2.96 mln ST, also right in line with last season.
Bias: trade doesn’t get quite the record (for any month) crush number it was looking for it was still the fourth biggest on record and the biggest for the month of November; negative immediate reaction save for bean oil, which jumps to high side on weak stocks and oil yield numbers.
As of Tuesday the funds were long 3K while the floor thought they long 7K. Funds added 7K longs and liquidated 21K shorts. Commercials liquidated 14K longs and added 21K shorts. Index fund adds 3K longs and adds 3K shorts.
Tidbit for the week:
After reading this my eyes were opened to just how quickly my children will grow up and be off to college. As a parent you hope to teach your children what it means to be a “good person”, respectable, ethical, responsible, religious, and of course spend as much time with them as you can. I didn’t realize from the day they are born till their 18th birthday I only have 936 weeks to do all of this in….
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