USDA Report

*Yield was left unchanged, but will be updated in the August S&D report

**Acres were pulled from the June 30^th Planted Acreage report

CORN

The friendly June 30^th Stocks report allowed the USDA to raise old crop feed demand 50 mbu this month. Combined with increases in ethanol (+25 mbu) and exports (+25 mbu), improved demand shrunk the 14/15 carryout by 97 mbu. The new crop balance sheet saw the USDA leave yield estimates unchanged, noting that updates would be available in their August 12^th report. Acreage numbers were pulled from the June 30^th acreage report, so the reduction in harvested acres allowed production estimates to decline 100 mbu for new crop corn. New crop demand projections saw feed (-25 mbu) and exports (-25 mbu) reduced, while ethanol added 25 mbu. The net effect was a reduction to the new crop carryout of 172 mbu – the market was looking for a little bit more. Our Take: The market is trading its own yield ideas right now, so the USDA leaving their number unchanged had little impact to the trade. It will be difficult to get an accurate feel on the national yield until we see the USDA’s thoughts on August 12^th. Until then, crop ratings and the weather forecast through pollination will dictate whether we go higher or lower. The funds are supporting the market right now, which continues to push corn higher.

SOYBEANS

The old crop soybean balance sheet saw demand continue to work higher with crush and exports each adding 15 mbu on Friday. The June 30^th stocks report confirmed a tighter soybean situation that some suspected, which resulted in a 44 mbu increase to residual demand. This essentially means that the USDA overestimated the size of last year’s crop and they are accounting for it here. The result was a 75 mbu reduction to the old crop carryout. New crop saw acreage ideas come straight across from the acreage report in June, while yield was left untouched and will await August revisions. The higher acres from June bumped production higher (+35 mbu), but a smaller carry-in and an increase to crush demand (+10 mbu) led to a net reduction in the carryout by 50 mbu. However, at 425 mbu, the estimate was higher than pre-report thoughts. Our Take: The soybean market has acreage and yield questions right now, even after the updated acreage numbers in June. Until the USDA updates their thoughts on both of these categories, the market should stay supported. There seem to be too many question marks with soybeans right now to push them aggressively lower. 

At the close of trading today:

CORN:   +6’0                       $4.34’4

SOYBEANS: +4’0               $10.30’2

WHEAT: -8’0                       $5.71’2

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com