Market Report

Dow +300.61
S&P +33.30
Nasdaq +91.76

The US stock market made an aggressive comeback this morning gaining back Friday’s losses, and the Chinese market also moved higher overnight easing tension in grains, however, strengthening currency has long term implications to exports.  US Dollar losing some traction this am, and oil down but back above $45

Grain Markets 12:00pm

Dec Corn +3 @ $3.66
Nov Beans +13 ½ @ $8.80

Macro markets mentioned above have somewhat stabilized, gives us some strength on the overnight session as well as this morning.  I think we all know the markets have been less than eventful, and I cannot give you anything too exciting this week.  Glad to see a bounce this morning in the right direction.  Though grain has proven to be range bound in the beans, and slightly negative each day in the corn, we are likely to see some additional volatility with a short week and a report on Friday.

USDA supply and demand report later this week on the 11^th.  It will be interesting to see if there are any changes to estimates.  It doesn’t seem like the trade is expecting to see much for a change if any.

My largest concern right now is basis.  Once we get into harvest and corn is going onto the ground, we are likely to see basis levels drop, so finding tools to limit basis risk for your harvest delivered crop should be at the top of your list for now.

Weather

Fuel – AAA’s National Average for gasoline is $2.391, compared to $3.438 just a year ago.  Diesel $2.553 compared to last year at $3.796.

Nebraska current average for gasoline is $2.528 which is above the national average.  Take a look at the chart below, you can see Nebraska has been at orbelow the national average all year, until mid-July where Nebraska made its way to .137 over the national average.  It would be nice to see Nebraska get back down to average or below.

The good news is diesel at $2.481 is below the average, and with the downtrend in oil likely to give us another break at the pumps, at some point it may be worth looking at filling on farm fuel storage for harvest.

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/

Strategy:  If the board gives us a rally, a March Corn $4.00 call might yield a 20-25 cent premium which you can add to your bottom line.  Worst case scenario, you have a $4.00 corn sale in February.  Then again, $4.00 sounds nice.

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045