Markets Close

January 12, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets upon close 1/12/15

Mar Corn +1 ¾ @ 4.02

Mar Beans -36 ¼ @ 10.16

 

CORN

 

USDA estimated 2014’s corn production at 14.216 billion bushels, down 191

million bushels from its November estimate. Farmers harvested 83.1 million

acres with a record national average yield of 171 bushels per acre. That’s 2.4

bpa lower than USDA’s November estimate.

 

Corn stocks as of December 1, at 11.2 billion bushels, are 7% higher than

during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its quarterly Grain Stocks

report. Of total stocks, 7.09 bb are stored on farm, up 11% from last year. The

remainder, 4.12 bb, is stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance from

September to November 2014 indicated demand of 4.25 bb, compared to 4.29 bb the

prior year.

 

USDA’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year at

1.877 bb, down 121 mb from USDA’s December estimate of 1.998 bb. After USDA

incorporated the revised production estimate, it trimmed 100 mb from feed and

residual demand and added 25 mb of demand for ethanol and food, seed, and

industrial use. USDA said the extra corn use for ethanol was to offset a

decline in sorghum use for ethanol. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at

13.8% compared to 14.6% in December.

 

Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks 189.15 million metric tons, down a

little more than 3 mmt from last month on the decline in U.S. production. USDA

left Brazil, Argentina and China’s corn production forecasts unchanged. USDA

anticipates that China will import 2 mmt of corn, down from 3.28 mmt last year.

 

The global stocks-to-use ration came in at 19.5% compared to 19.8% last

month.

 

SOYBEANS

 

Farmers produced 3.969 billion bushels of soybeans, USDA said in its Annual

Crop Production report. It’s nearly identical with the average pre-report

estimate but slightly higher than the November forecast. USDA said farmers

harvested 83.1 million acres, a record, with a national average yield of 47.8

bpa, which is 0.3 bpa higher than the previous estimate and also a record. USDA

may update the soybean production figure in its September 2015 quarterly stocks

report.

 

There are 2.52 bb in storage, up 17% from a year earlier, according to the

Grain Stocks report. Farmers are holding 1.22 bb on farm, up 28% from the

previous year, while 1.31 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance

for September through November totaled 1.54 bb, up 14% from the same period a

year earlier.

 

The WASDE report left ending stocks unchanged at 410 mb. USDA incorporated

the slightly larger production estimate, which was offset by a 10 mb increase

in exports and 1 mb increase in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio was

unchanged at 11.2%.

 

Globally, USDA increased its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 0.91 mmt

to 90.8 mmt. It estimates Brazil’s production at 95.5 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from

December, and Argentina’s production at 55 mmt, unchanged from December. Global

ending stocks-to-use grew to 31.7% from last month’s 31.4%.

 

 

 

 

January 12th Pre-Report Table
Quarterly Stocks
Dec 1 Average Estimate Estimate Range Sep 1 Stocks Dec 1 ’13
Stocks Stocks
Corn 11.203 11.123 10.820-11.325 1.236 10.453
Soybeans 2.524 2.590 2.400-2.742 0.092 2.154
Wheat 1.525 1.499 1.400-1.585 1.914 1.475
2014/15 US Production
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA    Nov ’14
January
Corn 14.216 14.349 14.171-14.554 14.407
    Yield 171.0 173.3 171.3-174.3 173.4
Soybeans 3.969 3.956 3.844-4.020 3.958
    Yield 47.8 47.6 46.8-48.2 47.5
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA     Dec ’14
January
Corn 1.877 1.927 1.710-2.081 1.998
Soybeans 0.410 0.393 0.355-0.452 0.410
Wheat 0.687 0.666 0.636-0.699 0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA     Dec ’14
January
Corn 189.150 191.19 186.50-193.00 192.20
Soybeans 90.780 89.35 87.40-90.55 89.87
Wheat 196.000 194.33 190.90-196.00 194.90
Stocks, Production, Carryout numbers in bil bu.   Acres in millions.   Source: Rueters
US numbers in bil bu.  World numbers in million metric tons.   Source: Rueters
Compiled by Thomas Meierotto, RJO’Brien-Iowa Office, tmeierotto@rjobrien.com

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

 

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Grain Report

January 12, 2015 Leave a comment


Today the market has some negativity, funds are long and likely taking some profits prior to the USDA report at 11am.

 

Moving into the report the bulls are looking for opportunity.  We may see harvested acres adjusted downward.  1st quarter demand looks to be strong, but with a record crop year we may see some substantial stocks numbers to offset this.  It will be interesting to see where we land.

 

Strategy would be to enter in an offer, shoot for the sky.  You just never know the volatility this report can bring.  Report info to follow.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Markets and Christmas Trivia

December 22, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets 12/22/14 @ 9:48am

Mar Corn + 3 ½ @ 4.14

Mar Beans +2 ¾ @ 10.41 ¼

 

Markets open with an easier tone, low trade volume expected for the holiday week.  Low volume can mean more volatility which at the end of the day may provide some opportunities to fill orders for either old crop or new crop sales.  If you have a number in mind, it may be worth placing an order.

 

Informa numbers were released last week Corn Acres 88.01 (-2.875 from ’14) Bean Acres 88.78 (+4.496 from ’14)

 

Corn –Sygenta said it has received approval from China’s regulatory authorities for imports of its MIR162. The approval covers corn grain and DDG’s. Crude oil continues its downward trend, which has long term implications on the profitability and demand for ethanol.

 

Beans – Opened in negative territory this am, but bounced back.  Demand remains strong, but trade continues to be volatile.  The holiday week may provide some opportunities.

 

Christmas Trivia – Who doesn’t love the Grinch, how well do you know him?

 

  1. Where did the Grinch live?

 

  1. While Stealing the Christmas tree, the Grinch was caught in the act by a small who….what was her name?

 

  1. After the Grinch realized he didn’t ruin Christmas, how much did his heart grow that day?

 

Answer key (no cheating!)

  1. Just north of Who-ville
  2. Cindy-Lou Who
  3. 3 Sizes!

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Market Report

December 15, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets at close 12/15/14

Mar Corn +1 @ 4.08 ½

Jan Beans -6 ¾ @ 10.39 ½

 

US Dollar is doing very well, up 10.9% in 2014, the stability of the US Dollar is inviting to investors to protect from uncertainty, or geopolitical risks in other countries.  This strength is a concern for exports and manufacturing, and directly effects the value of grain for countries looking to export US Grains.

 

Weather: How does the weather this week look for Northeast Nebraska?  Well moist and warm is how it looked for last week, which was a welcome break from the cold.  But by end of day today the temperature is expected to drop and this rain becomes…….snow.  High winds expected Tuesday with no moisture, and the temps to remain below freezing at least until Friday with our first shot at 37 degrees.  Slight chances for Moisture Thursday and Friday.

 

Corn:  

Crude falling to sub -$60 levels could play a factor in the margins for ethanol,  as crude continues to tumble and the prices at the gas pumps continue to fall, (in fact gas prices have declined for 80 straight days), ethanol could become less profitable and the grind may slow down.  However new buyers in the corn provide some strength, and as long as the funds continue to show interest in grain we may see the rally continue.

 

Funds adds 10K longs and liquidates 21K shorts. As of Tuesday the fund was long 172K, when the player sheet thought they were long 162K, Commercials add 2K longs and 53K shorts. This week the Index fund adds 4K longs and nothing to the shorts.

 

Beans:

 

NOPA crush numbers were released today

 

Crush: 161.2 million bushels, right near the low end of the trade estimate range, though up from 158.0 mbu last month, 160.1 mbu last year, andrecord number for Nov. Cumulative three-month crush stands at 419 mbu, down 7 mbu (-1.6%) from last year’s pace, with USDA looking for a 46 mbu (+2.6%) year-to-year crush increase.

SBO Stocks: 1005 million pounds, below even the lowest of trade estimates, though slightly above 966 mln lbs in Oct; Nov oil use at 1752 mln lbs right in line with LY. Massive drop in oil yield to 11.1 lbs/bu – worst since Mar ’10.

SBM Shipments: 835k short tons, up from 708k ST in October and 813k ST last November. Subsequent Nov domestic meal usage comes in at 2.96 mln ST, also right in line with last season.

Bias: trade doesn’t get quite the record (for any month) crush number it was looking for it was still the fourth biggest on record and the biggest for the month of November; negative immediate reaction save for bean oil, which jumps to high side on weak stocks and oil yield numbers.

 

As of Tuesday the funds were long 3K while the floor thought they long 7K. Funds added 7K longs and liquidated 21K shorts. Commercials liquidated 14K longs and added 21K shorts.  Index fund adds 3K longs and adds 3K shorts.

 

Tidbit for the week:

After reading this my eyes were opened to just how quickly my children will grow up and be off to college.  As a parent you hope to teach your children what it means to be a “good person”, respectable, ethical, responsible, religious, and of course spend as much time with them as you can.  I didn’t realize from the day they are born till their 18th birthday I only have 936 weeks to do all of this in….

http://erynlynum.com/how-936-pennies-will-forever-change-how-you-parent/

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Markets

December 8, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets as of 9:36am 12/8/14

Mar Corn +3 ½ @ 3.98 ½

Jan Beans +8 ½ @ 10.44 ½

 

Corn: The corn market is leading the upside, as technical buying interest has pushed March Corn back up toward the 4.00 level.  Which may prove to be a good time to make a corn sale or an offer at a higher level.

 

We are also seeing good weather in South America, the US dollar holding firm, and trade anticipating Wednesday’s USDA Crop Report.

 

Beans: A clear head and shoulder pattern was finished last week in the beans, typically a bearish sign for the technical traders, the market seems to have a firmer tone toward the end of last week into this week.  The bulls need to pierce resistance at the Nov. 26 high at $10.54 3/4 to break the recent downtrend pattern.

 

$13.33     — the contract high

$10.24 1/4 — the 10-day moving average

$10.28 3/4 — the 20-day moving average

$10.11 1/4 — the 40-day moving average

$9.04     — the contract low

 

Fun:  For you numbers folks, ever wonder how Santa does it?  I did, so here is what I found out.

  1. Due to international time zones, our modern day Santa Claus actually has 31 hoursto deliver presents to all the children of the world.
  2. But to do so, he’ll need to travel at a rate of 4,796,250 MPH!

So that’s how he does it!

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

December 1, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets fairly inactive today coming back from the Thanksgiving break.  However Wheat had an eventful day closing +29, thus providing some support for other grains.

 

Markets at close

Corn – ¼ @ 3.75 ½

Beans +1 @ 10.17

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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Grain Market Report

November 24, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets 9:10am 11/24/14

Dec 14 Corn -3 @ 3.69 ¾

Jan 15 Beans -5 @ 10.34

 

Market Journal – This is a great segment offered up by CVA’s ProEdge, this markets update is worth a lookhttp://youtu.be/eaZhAtmWP3M

 

Corn – December corn traded in a sideways fashion last week,

bouncing of off the 100 day moving average several times before closing mid-range on Friday.

Friday’s close saw December corn lose 7 cents in the last minute of trade to settle at $3.72 ¾.

This resulted in a 9 cent loss for the week.  The negative tone continued at the open this morning.

 

Basis – Corn basis values have strengthened across the region last week as

processors gear up for Thanksgiving this week. Producers have been comfortable with their

crop in the bin, which has been a major contributor to the recent strength. If you have HTA’s or

other hedged positions, plan to take advantage of the strength and move some corn in

December. The railroad has been performing adequately as of late, so there has been some good basis to be had at CVA’s shuttle loaders.

 

Recommendations – Strong basis values are telling us to move corn right now

regardless if we like the price. If you would like to take advantage of the recent strength and

still keep your price open, feel free to call to discuss options for doing so.

 

Soybeans – Soybean performance last week was largely

technical in nature as long liquidation was a feature early in the week before some

buying surfaced late. The charts felt choppy the week before, showing some bearish

divergence on the charts as new highs were made. The $10.00 mark held for

January futures last week, supported by some speculative buyers willing to defend

the level. On the week, January futures picked up 16 ½ cents to settle at $10.39.

Export sales also seen as disappointing for last week.

 

NOPA – NOPA crush numbers were out for October on Monday. Member plants

reported that 158.0 mbu of soybeans were crushed in October when the market was

expecting a number closer to 151.0 mbu. The October figure was the highest October crush

number in the recent data set. So far this marketing year member plants have crushed

258.0 mbu, 8.0 mbu behind last year’s pace. For the year, the USDA expects crush demand

to be up 73 mbu, so a sustained pace will be needed.

 

Basis – Soybean basis values saw some strength this week as cash soybeans

descended below $10.00 at processor locations. That figure is certainly a magic number for

many producers, so weaker prices on the CBOT should encourage some basis tightness for

the time being. If you have hedged positions pay attention to some of the recent strength and

be ready to cash it in.

 

Recommendations – Place offers for cash soybeans vs January futures.  I am thinking north of $10.50, but don’t get greedy.

That should put cash in the upper $9’s at most locations. With as volatile as the soybean trade is, the value of offers is quite apparent.

 

Thanksgiving Fun – a family in American can celebrate Thanksgiving with a classic turkey feast for less than $50 and at a “time cost” of only 2.39 hours of work for one person means that we really have a lot to be thankful for on Thanksgiving: an abundance of cheap, affordable food. Compared to 1986, the inflation-adjusted cost of a turkey dinner today is 21% cheaper, and 26% cheaper measured in the “time cost” for the average worker. Relative to our income and relative to the cost of food in the past, food in America has never been more affordable than it is today.  Read more here: http://www.aei.org/publication/something-thankful-real-cost-thanksgiving-dinner-1-3-cheaper-last-year-21-cheaper-1986/

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Update/Weather Update

November 17, 2014 Leave a comment


MARKET UPDATE  

 

As of 8:44am 11/17/14

Corn -5 ¼ @ 3.76 ½

Beans -4 ½ @ 10.18

        

  • soybeans started off hot last night but couldn’t sustain the momentum; last week’s mid-week highs continue to fall further in the rearview mirror. The trade is looking ahead to NOPA crush today, but record numbers are needed there as well as in exports to meet new demand estimates.
  • Private analysts Informa yesterday pegged 2015 corn planted acreage at 88.3 million acres, up 560k from October but still below 90.9 mln in 2014; soybean plantings were seen at the same number—88.3 million—down 190k from last month but still well above this year’s 84.2 mln ac best. Informa estimated winter wheat seedings at 42.2 mln ac, up 455k from last month but still just over 150k below last season. All wheat acreage for 2015 at 56.8 mln ac is up 400k from October and now just marginally behind the 2014 figure.
  • Friday’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds adding over 25k net corn on the week ending last Tuesday (11/11), over 8k longer than what daily trade estimates had indicated; soybeans added 17k net on the week but that was 5k short of where daily numbers had the position pegged. Producers and merchants cut nearly 24k net corn on the week and 19k beans.
  • Today’s October NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 150.8 million bushels, up from just under 100 mbu in September but still below 157.1 mbu last October. Trade estimates range from 127.5-161 million bushels.

 

WEATHER UPDATE          

  • The weekend brought widespread snows across the heart of the corn belt, with heavy rains mostly south of the OH River Valley; precipitation will remain confined to the Great Lakes and OH River Valley southward over the next week before stronger precipitation arrives for the 6-10 day period, which looks fairly wet across  the southern Plains and Midwest at this point. Temperatures are very slowly progressing back towards normal for the extended forecasts.
  • Rains fell in central/northern Brazil over the weekend, continuing in the north and northeast over the next 48 hours, and building back into the heart of the region again later in the week. The 6-10 day remains wet for the center-north

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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November 10, 2014 Leave a comment


USDA Report released today at 11am, markets opened strong this morning positioning prior to the report.  Corn remains strong while beans turned weaker.

 

As of 11:30am

Dec Corn +6 @3.73 1/2

Jan Beans -2 @ 10.34 ¾

 

2014/15 US Production
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 14.407 14.551 14.242-14.842 14.475
    Yield 173.4 175.2 171.4-178.6 174.2
Soybeans 3.958 3.967 3.903-4.064 3.927
    Yield 47.5 47.6 46.8-48.7 47.1
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 2.008 2.135 1.850-2.282 2.081
Soybeans 0.450 0.442 0.403-0.513 0.450
Wheat 0.644 0.660 0.634-0.682 0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate      Range USDA    Oct ’14
November
Corn 191.500 190.770 185.600-194.180 190.580
Soybeans 90.280 90.370 89.500-92.550 90.670
Wheat 192.900 192.150 189.790-196.400 192.590

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Prices

November 3, 2014 Leave a comment


Market close

Corn-3 ¼  @ 3.73 ½

Beans -17 ¾ @ 10.28 ¾

 

The bean meal has been cited as to the cause of last weeks rally, with corn following.  There is talk of 6 cargoes of meal being cancelled. Also heard that funds were buying beans /selling corn, this could be unwinding of the position.  A negative tone throughout the day.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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