Grain Prices and Markets

August 25, 2014 Leave a comment


Current markets as of 8: am 8/25/14

Corn -5 ¼ @ 3.60 ¼

New Corn -4 ¼ @ 3.67 ¾

 

Beans -6 ¾ @10.35 ¾

 

Commodities are softer this morning outside of Sep beans and soybean oil. Corn is down -3 and soybeans are down -7 after the overnight session.  While the US Dollar index is higher.

 

-New crop beans made new lows overnight, marking the fifth time it has done so in the last 10 trading sessions.

-slower harvest in the south and fewer soybean imports than expected have caused old crop bean basis levels to rocket upwards, this may be an opportune time to make an old crop sale if any beans are left.  Harvest basis is likely to head back into negative territory come October.

-good weekend rain coverage across key portions of the growing region and more to come this week.

-crop conditions will be out later this afternoon

 

Strategy: It may be time to look at adding some premium to a new crop sale or hedge.  For example receiving an extra 20 cents on a sale today in exchange for a new crop offer.  Harvest basis levels also may be a risk concern, especially for beans.

 

Pro-Farmer Tour

Pro-Farmer state by state yield estimates vs last year’s USDA yield are shown in the charts below. As you can see, it appears even better yields are expected with the exception of Nebraska Soybeans.

 

Corn Yield (bpa) Last Year PF This Year % Change
Nebraska 170.0 171.5 +1%
  1. Dakota
 138.0 140.0 +1%
Minnesota 160.0 160.0 NC
Illinois 178.0 198.0 +11%
Iowa 165.0 183.0 +11%
Indiana 177.0 193.0 +9%
Ohio 177.0 187.0 +6%
US Total 158.8 169.3 +6.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean Yield (bpa) Last Year PF This Year % Change
Nebraska 53.0 51.0 -4%
  1. Dakota
 40.0 40.0 NC
Minnesota 41.0 41.5 +1%
Illinois 49.0 54.0 +10%
Iowa 44.5 49.5 +11%
Indiana 51.0 52.0 +2%
Ohio 49.0 50.0 +2%
US Total 43.3 45.3 +4.6%

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

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Grain Market Update

August 18, 2014 Leave a comment


Corn +2 @ 3.67 ¾

New Corn +1 @ 3.78

 

Beans unchanged @ 10.52

 

Corn

  • Weather – Can the weather get much better across the Corn Belt?  75 degree weather and good rainfall in mid-August
  • USDA report is behind us and the next focal point is Septembers Quarterly Stocks report.  Supply appears to continue increasing while demand remains strong.
  • Funds – The funds do not seem to be doing much of anything, but waiting to see.  Still currently holding a net long position, and the market continues to chop, not knowing whether to move up or down.  If the funds decide to exit, corn could continue to fall.  However, Friday’s close gave some bullish news giving us a few cents to the upside.  These short term rallies might be an opportunity for producers to make a sale or two.  It sure seems the sellers are quick to react and take back those rallies.  There just does not seem to be enough buyers to continue any upward momentum.
  • Basis – Keep a close eye on basis in your area, basis remains fairly steady.  It is likely area consumers such as ethanol plants are supporting the basis levels.  However, once they build an adequate supply we may see basis aggressively slip downward.  If a producer sees a basis level they like, LOCK IT IN.  I suspect the downside risk for basis is one to be concerned about.

 

Beans

  • Production – Weather plays a major part in final production, however with the mild temperatures and adequate rainfall, it’s hard not to see the bean crop is getting larger.  What is the long term price risk here?  Brazil will be planting in a few weeks and there is already talk of them planting 5-6% more.  Beans continue to show signs of weakness in the trade.  Any signs of rally might warrant a sale opportunity at a profitable level.

 

Pro Farmer tour

2014 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Schedule

 

Eastern Tour stops:

Sunday, Aug. 17 – Columbus, Ohio

Monday, Aug. 18 – Fishers, Ind.

Tuesday, Aug. 19 – Bloomington, Ill.

Wednesday, Aug. 20 – Coralville, Iowa

Thursday, Aug. 21 – Rochester, Minn.

 

 

Western Tour stops:

Sunday, Aug. 17 – Sioux Falls, S.D.

Monday, Aug. 18 – Grand Island, Neb.

Tuesday, Aug. 19 – Nebraska City, Neb.

Wednesday, Aug. 20 – Spencer, Iowa

Thursday, Aug. 21 – Rochester, Minn.

 

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

__________ Information from ESET Endpoint Antivirus,

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Grain Report

August 14, 2014 Leave a comment


8/14/14 @ 8:17am

 

  • With the monthly Supply and Demand numbers revealed on 11/12/14, corn closed 1-2c higher and beans -14c on that day.  But not before a substantial reaction dropping corn -9 and beans -28.  Often times the market trade volume increases and causes a substantial move at least for a short while.  These report days represent substantial opportunities for hedgers.
  • The quick summary below shows the projected corn yield below market expectations and soybean carryout above the average market estimates.   While the yield estimates fell a bit short of estimate, however showing an increase from USDA’s July report.

 

  • As of this writing this morning corn is even @3.58 and beans are +1 @ 10.47
  • The feel in the market is still that a large crop is out there.   The USDA has a tendency to stair step into large crops meaning in future reports the yield estimates could continue to grow.   This week may be a great time for farmers to clean up any remaining old crop and get more coverage on the books for the coming crop years.

For more information, contact Greg Mockenhaupt at CVA East Hub.

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Grain Prices

August 11, 2014 Leave a comment


-The USDA will issue their August Supply and Demand report tomorrow morning at 11:00am. The yield numbers will be monitored closely as this is the first report this year that will incorporate field data into yield estimates. Metrics such as harvestable ears, ear weight, and kernel counts where appropriate will be used to determine what yields could look like under normal growing conditions.

 

-Traders will position themselves ahead of tomorrow morning’s trade. Overall, we shouldn’t see any convincing moves either direction ahead of tomorrow.

 

-Soybeans had a nice finish Friday, which could provide a nice opportunity for producers to get some more harvest sales on prior to tomorrow’s numbers.

 

Markets 8/11/14 @ 9:56am

Sept Corn +5 @ 3.57

Dec Corn +4 @ 3.80 ½

 

Nov Beans – ½ @ 10.84 ¼

 

Strategy: Consider locking in a sale or using options to lock in a floor prior to the report.

 

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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Grain Prices

August 5, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets at of 8:41am 8/5/14

Sept Corn -4 @ 3.54 ¾

Dec Corn -4 ¼ @ 3.65

 

Nov Beans -15 ½ @ 10.64

 

-Yesterday saw a rally in the grains, with corn+7 & soybeans +21!  However a more negative tone this morning.

-Weather forecasts did not change much since Friday when we were lower by this amount, but short-covering came into the market and we are waiting to see if the forecasts pans out this week, with rains forecast

-Crop conditions fell by 2% on corn to 73% good/excellent nationwide. Nebraska corn fell by 2% as well

-Soybean conditions were steady at 71% good/excellent nationwide. Nebraska soybean conditions fell by 2%

-Overnight corn is down 2 with soybeans down 10

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

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Grain Prices

July 28, 2014 Leave a comment


-Overnight corn & beans are higher with mostly dry weather for the next 1-2 weeks in the forecast

-Continue to watch for export business announcements from the USDA & weather forecasts. Currently they are calling for dry & cool, if it heats up and stays dry we may be able to extend the overnight rally a bit more this week.

 

Markets as of 8:34am 7/28/14

Corn +3 @3.66

Dec Corn +3@3.74 ¾

 

Beans +11 ½ @ 12.23 ½

Nov Beans +13 @ 10.96 ¾

 

Strategy: Consider placing 2014/2015 new crop “orders” at higher levels to capture future rally’s and reduce your marketing risk.

 

 

For more information, contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

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Grain Markets

July 14, 2014 Leave a comment


Grain Markets at close 7/14/14

 

Corn+3@3.81

New+3@3.88

 

Beans+1@11.97

New+11@10.86

 

For more information, contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

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Grain Prices

June 2, 2014 Leave a comment


Overnight markets were weaker with good rains across much of the US growing areas over the weekend

-Friday saw liquidation in corn and a lower close in soybeans to close out the month of May.

-Corn is needing some positive news as currently growing conditions are very good and the crop was planted in a timely manner

 

Markets 6/2/14 8:01am

Corn -4@4.61 ¾ , New -4@4.53 ¾

Beans-5 ½ @14.87 ¾, New -9@12.24 3/4

For More Information, contact: 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

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Grain Markets

May 9, 2014 Leave a comment


Grain prices from Greg Mockenhaupt. For more market information, contact Greg at the CVA East Hub.

Grain markets 5/9/14 8:31am

Corn -1 @ 5.12, New Crop -1 ¾ @ 5.09 ¾

Beans -1 ¼ @14.73, New Crop +2 @12.26

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Greg Mockenhaupt Reports Grain Markets

May 7, 2014 Leave a comment


By Greg Mockenhaupt, Grain Market Contributor

For more maker information, contact Greg Mockenhaupt at the CVA East Hub.

May Corn -2 @ 5.11, Dec Corn -3 @ 5.06 ¾ (5/7/14 8:19am)

Corn planting remains the top concern. The USDA earlier this week reported the US corn crop at just 29% planted vs. the 5-year average of around 42%. Corn emergence is at just 7% compared to the 5-year average pace of 13%.  Nebraska is currently just 1% behind pace.  The forecast has turned a bit drier for a larger portion of the corn belt, so as the planting pace picks up its likely we will see a significant increase in progress come next week.  Talks of up to 70%.

May Beans -11 ½ @ 14.52 ½, Nov Beans – ½ @12.24 ¾ (5/7/14 8:19am)

Bean planting has starting off a bit slow with the USDA estimating 5% of the crop planted vs. the 5-year average of 11%, but thoughts are… this starts to pick up as the southern states begin to advance.  The trade will continue to watch the forecast, but there is plenty of time left for beans.

As we plant, it is easy to forget about the markets, and many producers still have a substantial amount of grain left in the bin.  A great way to maximize your cash sale is ProEdge’s bonus premium contract which adds an additional 25-30 cents to each corn bushel.  This is in exchange for an offer on your new crop corn. Depending on your location that’s getting close to $5.

ProEdge offers the same contract for your beans as well with an additional 30-40 cents per bushel.  Prices vary with market fluctuation.

Market information provided by Greg Mockenhaupt a ProEdge Grain Risk Management Consultant at Central Valley Ag’s East Hub 402-685-5613

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

 

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