Monday’s Market Report


Markets 4/4/16 11:36am:

Dow -8.89
S&P -1.47
Nasdaq -4.77

U.S. Stock markets has been on the way up for six weeks now.  This morning drifting lower, holding near their 2016 highs after a recent rally spurred by a weakening dollar and stabilizing oil prices. Major U.S. indexes have rallied for six of the last seven weeks and many investors took comfort in Friday’s solid readings on U.S. manufacturing activity and the March jobs report, which further eased concerns about the strength of the economy.

Oil prices have back tracked reversing all of this year’s gains.  We are now back to levels below where we started early January.

 

May Oil/Crude Futures image001

Grain Markets 4/4/16 11:31am:

Corn+0’2@3.54’2
Beans-4’6@9.13’4

 

As you know last week’s USDA report was released and the special report addressed all USDA data.  In summary:

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As far as planting goes, Producers in NE Nebraska are patiently waiting to start planting corn.  Crop Insurance start date for our area is April 10th.   Moisture is more than adequate with 2-3” of total moisture over the last 2 weeks. Temps have been sporadic with daytime highs ranging from 40-75 deg. night time lows range from 24-35 deg. with current 4” ground temp at 47 deg vs. 43 deg same day last yr.  Bottom line our soil profile is pretty full and we do have some standing water, ideally we would like a warmer and dryer forecast through April… this week cool mid 50’s and dry.

With regard to acres, there is talk of many producers switching back to beans.  At least those that were considering corn on corn.  Things have changed and the corn to bean ratio is now back to where we like to see it at 2.5.

 

Corn:  The big weight on Corn is the Planting Intentions, which, even if we do see some switches out of corn and into beans, either due to wetness or better returns for Beans given the rally in the SX/CZ ratio, still means we need a rather sizable crop yield loss to turn this market around, given the current stocks at 1.9 bln bu and the fact that it might take a national yield under 160 bu/acre to drop stocks enough to matter.

 

Strategy: Call strategies are cheap right now.  This will allow you to move the corn now, have a floor, and a shot at upside.

 

Beans: started overnight a little firmer but have turned into negative territory during the day session, as we saw Soymeal break to losses of $2-3, which is likely due to the fact that the non-Commercial or Spec Fund had covered some of this short, but the cash markets are not following meal values higher, as demand is lethargic and totally hand-to-mouth, as corn’s long term bearish outlook does not bide for meal staying too high in value.

 

Strategy:  8.00/9.60 Triplex contracts are right in the money.  If you don’t have in an offer, this may be an opportunity.

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Retirement: Saving for retirement?  The rules are about to change.  New rules aimed at stockbrokers will have enormous impacts on the way Americans save for retirement.

The rules aren’t coming from the government’s financial regulatory apparatus but from the Labor Department. This week, it is expected to release final regulations that will require brokers getting paid to provide investment guidance on a retirement account to act solely in the best interest of the investor.  It will affect IRA’s, and 401K’s as well.

Read more here:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-government-rule-rewrites-retirement-savings-1459762202

For Fun: Last week this was going around, I received it by email, text, and of course Facebook.  But if you haven’t seen it, it is good for a chuckle……or a tear or two.

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Market Report


Market corn +1 @ 3.69
Market beans -7 @ 8.66

USDA Report


USDA Report released today at 11am and the reaction was quite the show.

 

Beans

Beans traveled from -12 back to +12 in less than 5 seconds.  The amount of volatility was neat to see.  The day started with beans down anticipating an acreage increase.  Turned out the opposite sending beans up to 9.81.  Bean stocks up 34% from March last year, beans acres up but still a new high.

 

Corn

Corn started this morning in the green anticipating unchanged acreage or a slight reduction in acres, but the report showed an increase in corn acres sending corn all the way down to a low of $3.79 ½.  Corn stocks up 11% from March last year/corn acres higher than expected.

 

USDA Numbers

                                USDA                    Avg Est                 Last Year

Corn                      89.199                   88.731                   90.597

Soybeans            84.615                   85.919                   83.701

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

 

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Mockenhaupt and Schinck Sworn in on Oakland City Council


Greg Mockenhaupt and Tammy Schinck were sworn in to the Oakland City Council last evening during the council's regular monthly meeting. They replace Lorie Johnson and Tim Anderson who chose not to run for re-election. Photo Credit/Denise Gilliland, Editor and Chief, Kat Country Hub and also an Oakland City Council member.

Greg Mockenhaupt and Tammy Schinck were sworn in to the Oakland City Council last evening during the council’s regular monthly meeting. They replace Lorie Johnson and Tim Anderson who chose not to run for re-election. Photo Credit/Denise Gilliland, Editor and Chief, Kat Country Hub and also an Oakland City Council member.

Grain Markets


By Greg Mockenhaupt, Grain Market Contributor

Markets 5/19/14 @ 8:33am

Corn -2 @ 4.81, December -1 @ 4.80

Beans unchanged 14.65, November +5@12.27

 

-Markets are mixed this morning, with lower corn & wheat, and higher new crop soybeans

-Planting progress is expected to be over 70% for corn and 30% for soybeans this afternoon with the majority of the corn left in the northern states.

-Most are talking of more soybean acres with the “late” planting and less corn acres, however markets have been counter-intuitive as new corn has broke from highs and new beans stay strong

-Look for strong corn export inspections on the report later today

 

For more information, call Greg Mockenhaupt at the CVA East Hub. Information is listed below.

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt Reports Grain Markets


By Greg Mockenhaupt, Grain Market Contributor

For more maker information, contact Greg Mockenhaupt at the CVA East Hub.

May Corn -2 @ 5.11, Dec Corn -3 @ 5.06 ¾ (5/7/14 8:19am)

Corn planting remains the top concern. The USDA earlier this week reported the US corn crop at just 29% planted vs. the 5-year average of around 42%. Corn emergence is at just 7% compared to the 5-year average pace of 13%.  Nebraska is currently just 1% behind pace.  The forecast has turned a bit drier for a larger portion of the corn belt, so as the planting pace picks up its likely we will see a significant increase in progress come next week.  Talks of up to 70%.

May Beans -11 ½ @ 14.52 ½, Nov Beans – ½ @12.24 ¾ (5/7/14 8:19am)

Bean planting has starting off a bit slow with the USDA estimating 5% of the crop planted vs. the 5-year average of 11%, but thoughts are… this starts to pick up as the southern states begin to advance.  The trade will continue to watch the forecast, but there is plenty of time left for beans.

As we plant, it is easy to forget about the markets, and many producers still have a substantial amount of grain left in the bin.  A great way to maximize your cash sale is ProEdge’s bonus premium contract which adds an additional 25-30 cents to each corn bushel.  This is in exchange for an offer on your new crop corn. Depending on your location that’s getting close to $5.

ProEdge offers the same contract for your beans as well with an additional 30-40 cents per bushel.  Prices vary with market fluctuation.

Market information provided by Greg Mockenhaupt a ProEdge Grain Risk Management Consultant at Central Valley Ag’s East Hub 402-685-5613

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

 

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