Market Report

April 27, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets

4/27/15 @ 9.35am
Dow +69.40
S&P +6.68
Nasdaq +23.30

U.S. Stocks opened high again this morning pushing the Nasdaq and S&P yet further into record territory. The Dow rising 51 points. Despite many bears talking of the end of the rally, it continues to trend higher yet. It seems the old bull is not yet ready to die.

Grain Markets

4/27/15 @ 9:36am
Corn-1 ¾ @ 3.62 ¾
Beans +6 ¾ @ 9.76 ½

Weather: Colder weather shifts north as the jet stream lifts northward and warming up the Midwest into the upper 70’s and 80’s. East Hub area starting in the low 70’s today and steadily working up to the 80’s by Friday. First chance of rain comes on Friday evening with only a 20% chance. Also a 50% of thunderstorms on Saturday evening.

Corn: Corn trades down to lows not seen in 6 months, breaking through resistance of $3.75, a low set on March 18th, 2015. The next major support line of $3.60 may be the stopping point for this negativity. It seem planting has been progressing well, and the weather forecast looks promising for planting. As I drive the country side it seems most farmers are progressing nicely in the fields, which should keep a lid on any potential rallies. Planting progress report comes out this afternoon and the trade is looking for close to 25%. Some demand concerns exist with the spreading of the bird flu virus, and some back pedaling from China regarding U.S DDG imports. However, as mentioned last week, the funds are holding a short position, which may provide some upside as a short covering rally. Problem is that we don’t know where this rally starts from……it seems to be headed towards $3.60 and the funds are continuing to add short positions. Any rallies are likely to be cause by a short covering.

Beans: There’s also still some rumblings about the trucker strike in Brazil and more talk of a potential strike in Argentina by the end of the week. Brazilian truckers upheld their strike into the end of last week, but participation continued to wane overall—the number of highway blockages were reduced from 17 to 11 on Friday. The problem is global soy supplies are building and there is continued talk that if weather cooperates, we could see U.S. ending stocks push above 500 million bushels.

For Fun
Summer Jobs!
Tis the summer season as parents of teenagers begin talking about summer jobs. Talks of de-tasseling corn, working construction, making pizzas, and even hiring “close up” folks to paint the house. This is the proving grounds for the real world…..How work ethic is established. These jobs can be tough, but this is motivation for these kids to aspire to become something great. Learn what it means to love what you do, or even HATE IT! But at least feel a sense of accomplishment when finished. To learn a new skill, or why corn needs a tassel removed. But most importantly feel what it’s like to experience the fruits of your labor. To save some money for the car they have been dreaming of, spend a little on their longtime girlfriend of 2 months, and donate some of it to a charity they believe in. This is the experience that makes the boy a man (or the girl a woman).

De-tasseling corn is hot, sweaty, tough work for a teen. My oldest son is ready to go, he wants to make some cash, despite the horror stories he has been told. So here are 5 things students say they love and 5 things students hate:

Love:
1. Looking good! Getting a tan and muscle tone
2. Wildlife
3. Making big bucks, including the bonus at the end!
4. Making friends
5. Learning lifelong values (former de-tassel’rs have stories)

Hate:
1. Mud, corn rash, humidity
2. Wet and cold in the am, hot and humid afternoon
3. Bugs/Aphids (feel like they are on you)
4. Waking up early and wear and tear on body
5. Wet shoes and socks (losing a shoe)
Read in detail here: http://www.agriculture.com/crops/corn/detasseling-5-things-to-love-5-we-hate_136-sl44305

Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

cid:AF73B925-5CA2-4B76-ACA6-9431CFD66514

1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
http://www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

April 20, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets

4/20/14 @ 9:48am
Dow +226.02
S&P +20.93
Nasdaq +52.82

Markets bounce back after sharp decline last week, as China steps to stimulate its slowing economy.  The second industry-wide cut in two months, China’s central bank on Sunday reduced the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves in a move to help spur bank lending and combat slowing growth, which could free up additional funds to be loaned by bankers.

 

Grain Markets

4/20/15 @ 9:46am
May Corn -2 @ 3.77 ¼
May Beans +11 @ 9.80 ¼

A nice rally seen over night, but corn remains capped, while beans have seen a nice bounce, holding near the high of the day.  Planting progress report expected today at 3pm.

Weather: Rain through much of the Midwest over the weekend, with an expected cool down early this week, with below-normal temps over the next 10+ days.

 

Corn:  Corn remaining very steady at -2, it seems there are very few bearish cards left to play at this point, yet the concern for lower prices remains.  However, just one bullish card played might just give us an opportunity to make a sale.  The same might be said for a weather scare.   A sound strategy for producers looking to empty bins is an extended price strategy (sell the cash/re-own the board).  This allows the producer to empty bins, set basis, but remain open on the futures price.  Thus participating in market movements and participating in a potential rally.

 

Soybeans: Argument still remains the same, Bulls talking of strong demand, and bears talking of oversupply.  The strong U.S. Dollar is still a variable for exports.  One consideration is that the hedge funds are holding a record short position, a short covering rally may be in the cards, and having offers in place will be key to taking advantage of this opportunity.  I am also a big fan of the Triplex contract for protecting some longer term downside risk on beans.

 

For Fun:

I received an email from a co-worker this morning illustrating something I have NEVER seen.  It inspired me to learn more about artist Dalton Ghetti’s tiny sculptures carved out of the fragile tips of pencils.  Yeah that right…. A pencil!  From a miniature bust of Elvis Presley wearing shades to tiny hammers and old boots, his work is mind boggling. Check it out in our gallery below, and get ready to be amazed by this unbelievable:

http://www.daltonmghetti.com/shop.asp

image001 image002 image003

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

March 23, 2015 Leave a comment


It’s CRAZY MONDAY!!! Why? The market is up and we all want to know why.  It’s great to see the board come back after such a negative week last week.

 

Market:

Oil is down, the US dollar is down, supportive to grain.

 

3/23/15 11:18am

DJ +30.20

S&P +1.63

Nasdaq -6.50

 

Radio Shack’s bankruptcy auction kicks off today, liquidating the companies remaining assets.  If you said “What? Radio Shack is closing” well that explains it all, if you walk into your neighborhood Radio Shack it will look empty, or be closed.  Even shelves, displays, everything is being sold.  However select stores will remain open and be co-branded with Sprint to keep offering Sprint wireless services.  Read more here http://www.wsj.com/articles/radioshacks-future-to-be-decided-at-bankruptcy-auction-1427057225

 

 

Grain Markets –

3/23/15 11:31am

May Corn +5 ½ @ 3.90 ½

May Beans +14 ½ @ 9.88 ½

 

Looking forward, many folks are preparing to the USDA  quarterly stock report and perspective planting data scheduled for March 31st.  It seems the biggest unknown is US planted corn acres.

 

Informa sent out some numbers last week, lowering both corn and bean estimates:

 

  • Corn: 88.5 million acres, down 75 thousand from January
    ·Soybeans: 87.5 million acres, down 547 thousand from January
    · Grain Sorghum: 8.2 million acres, up 601 thousand from January
    · All Wheat: 56.0 million acres, up 1.1 million from January
    · All Cotton: 9.6 million acres, down 210 thousand from January

 

Corn:  Corn broke $3.79 ½ resistance on Monday last week and really set the negative tone driving the market down to $3.67, before a key reversal on Weds.  Which put us back into the “range bound” range from 2 weeks prior.

 

Many farmers are still waiting for the “right price” to sell, and $4 might be the magic number.  That said, any potential rally in the corn could be met with farmer selling, thus capping the rally.  Many farmers are needing to free up some capital for spring input costs.

 

Beans:  Continued talk of record production out of South America keeps many bearish, however as the U.S Dollar continues to show weakness, we may continue to see the bean price supported.  Looking for any bounce in the market to make strategic sales will be key.

 

For Fun:  Exotic sports cars have always been something every kids dreams about, but what about domestic sports cars.  Many think Mustangs, Chargers, Corvettes, Camaros, but what about the Ford GT?  Ford plans to release the 2017 Ford GT and compete with the like of Ferrari, Porsche and  McLaren with 600 plus horsepower!  But not with a V-8…..but with the ECO BOOST?  I am amazed, and want one so bad I have to figure out how to explain to my wife I need to sell everything we own to get one.

 

This car utilizes a full carbon fiber construction including body panels.  To the carbon-fiber monocoque Ford’s engineers bolted front and rear subframes made from aluminum. The active aerodynamic elements include a multi-position rear wing that mimics the caboose-tamers of the P1 and LaFerrari to help keep Ford’s mid-engine supercar planted at speed. The suspension is active and uses inboard, pushrod-actuated damping, and ride height is adjustable.  Power comes not from a supercharged V-8 as in the previous GT, but rather Ford’s next-generation twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter EcoBoost V-6 engine.  Unlike last decade’s GT, the doors hinge up and forward and don’t incorporate portions of the roof; they still, however, grant access to a simple, businesslike cabin. A digital gauge cluster is augmented by a central color touch-screen display with Ford’s just-introduced Sync 3 infotainment setup, while the slim center tunnel houses the starter button and transmission selector buttons. A pair of paddle shifters sprouts from behind a squircle-shaped steering wheel, and we can’t get over the awesome door-mounted HVAC vents.  You can read more here http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2017-ford-gt-official-photos-and-info-news

 

And if you really like what you see, Here is a video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C-qSRnqUZg

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Report

March 20, 2015 Leave a comment


Corn: 88.5 million acres, down 75 thousand from January
· Soybeans: 87.5 million acres, down 547 thousand from January
· Grain Sorghum: 8.2 million acres, up 601 thousand from January
· All Wheat: 56.0 million acres, up 1.1 million from January
· All Cotton: 9.6 million acres, down 210 thousand from January

Greg Mockenhaupt
ProEdge Risk Management Consultant
P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O
Oakland, NE 68045
http://www.cvacoop.com

Filed under News Tagged with , ,

Market Report

March 9, 2015 Leave a comment


Market:

A significant sell off on Friday in the stock market as strong jobs data raised expectations for a midyear rate increase.  The Dow industrials fell 1.5% in their biggest one-day loss since late January, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%. Last week the US Dollar posted new highs and Crude remained above $50.

 

This morning, both oil and the US Dollar showing down, while the stock market is bouncing back nicely, on this 6th anniversary of the Bull market.  The S&P 500 hit a bottom on March 9, 2009 at 676.53, losing more than half its value from the peak in October 2007. In six year since, the S&P 500 has more than tripled.

 

Market Headline: Apple will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing AT&T on March 19th.  Year to date AT&T is up 3.2% while Apple is up 70%.  More can be read in today’s Wall Street Journal http://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-ascent-from-niche-stock-to-juggernaut-1425855756 , Apple is expected to unveil its watch today, which is expected to be the hottest wearable technology

 

Weather:

This week looks to be beautiful.  How could you not come back to work after this weekend feeling recharged from some sunlight and warmth?  Watch out, today is a great day!  This week looks to be 60-70 degrees and sunny every day.  It is not even supposed to freeze overnight.  In addition the time changed on Sunday, so if this morning came a little quicker than normal you know why.

 

Grain Markets @ 10:32am

May Corn +2 ½ @3.88 ½ 

May Beans +8 ¾ @9.93 ¾ 

 

Grain:

Markets open stronger, and backing off a bit, but settling in and maintaining a firmer tone.  Lack of news/headlines in grain keeps the market steady to lower, there is just not much in the news to get anyone ready to move.  This might give us some opportunity for a weather story.  A quiet market is looking for something to latch on to.  We also can look to the month end planting intentions report.  It may be a market mover.

 

With Tax time upon us, and the numbers on your desk, it may be a great time to refigure those break even numbers for your operation.  Knowing the real numbers helps in making your marketing decisions.

 

Reminder March contracts expire this Friday.

 

Corn: Last week was negative with a rebound this morning, yet corn continues to stay in its range of 3.85-3.91 refusing to go anywhere.  Bears keep talking about potential export issues due to strength in the US dollar, or slipping ethanol demand as crude remains low.  But the bulls anxiously await a weather story which could include some planting delays.  Corn basis remains strong, and it may be worth looking to limit some of your basis risk on corn in the bin.

 

Beans: it seems “trucker strikes” remain the top story, but the premium has quickly dissipated as resolution continues.  Fund liquidation has continued to beat down beans.  As with corn the US Dollar strength affects US exports of beans.  Tuesday this week USDA will update supply and demand at 11am.

 

For Fun:

While doing a real estate search for my father’s property I stumbled across Estately who has a blog about what each state has “more of”….per capita, than any other.  Nebraska having the most high school graduates seems pretty positive when you read some of the other states.  For example Arizona having the most UFO sightings per capita, and Missouri having the most Meth Lab incidents per capita.  Though I close runner up to Nebraska might be a state leading the way in “craft beer production”.”  To read more http://blog.estately.com/

image002

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Report

February 25, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets in general have been more supportive, 100 day moving average for both corn and beans remains supportive.  Though today has shown to be less supportive.

 

11:30am 2/23/15

Corn -6 ¼ @ 3.79

Beans-5 @ 9.94 ¼ 

 

Corn:  

Corn has been trading in an extremely narrow range of about 10 cents, when dropping down to support it  seems new buyers quickly come in keeping it supported.  When speaking to producers people are beginning to feel more optimistic and it seems people are looking for a reason to buy, “just give me a reason.”  It seems any weather fear or bullish headline could attract some short term buyers.  Demand remains strong in both exports and ethanol.  Moving forward “supply” may be very important.

 

Corn seemed to take a beating  so far this morning pushing below the 3.80 support line for the first time in a week.  Closing below definitely creates some concern, and gives a new trading range (much wider).

 

Beans:

As we head into a more historically bullish time period and the ag forums unexpectedly low ’15 planted acreage estimate of 83.5 Million, we have yet to see a major bullish response.  If demand remains high, and we receive any bullish news we may receive some opportunities.  Brazil there are talks of truckers protesting high diesel prices, and roadways in Mato Grosso have been experiencing delays/stand stills.

 

Interesting:


US TODAY “Deer Earning Dive on Ag Sag

Deere & Co. said its net income was $386.8 million, or $1.12 per share, for the quarter that ended Jan. 31., the equipment-maker’s first fiscal quarter of 2015.That was a drop of 43% from the year-earlier net income of $681.1 million, or $1.81 per share.  “Deere’s first-quarter performance reflected sluggish conditions in the global farm sector, which reduced demand for agricultural machinery, particularly larger models, and led to lower sales and income,” said CEO Samuel Allen.

Read it all here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/02/20/deere-quarterly-earnings/23726911/

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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Market Report

February 19, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets 9:58am 2/19/15

Corn +5 ¼ @3.89

Beans +10 @ 10.05 ¾ 

 

This week:

A short week for the trade with a holiday on Monday, traders came back ready to go with Tuesday’s NOPA Crush Report.  Report came in somewhat flat with the exception of reporting a record January.  This and a bump in crude caused some excitement and a nice bump for both corn and beans.  In fact crude closed above resistance which may have indicated crude may head on up, however sellers came in and quickly pounded it back down into the red the next day and made no attempts to rally back….. a “turn around Tuesday” feel on Weds as the markets quickly back tracked, and crude dropped back into the red and the US dollar remained strong.

 

This morning the overnight session pushed beans into the green and grains in general have been fighting to hold.  Toggling between green and red for the first ½ hour this am, but well into the green by 9:30am.  This volatility may provide some marketing opportunities for us on the upswing, and market order or offers can be a win.  With farmers anxious to sell on a rally, it is likely basis will break,  In other words if the market continues to rally we may see basis slip 5 to 10 cents.  It may be wise to limit some basis risk by simply using a basis contract or our Extended Price program to lock in your basis.

 

Looking forward:

USDA 2015 Ag Outlook Forum will take center stage today and tomorrow, so look for projections and estimates.  This is what I have seen so far, and the beans surprised me a bit, this may give us some strength in beans today, however bean numbers may come up.

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  2015 Corn planting projected at 89.0 mln acres vs 2014’s 90.6 mln acres

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  2015 Soybean planting projected at 83.5 mln acres vs 2014’s 83.7 mln acres

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  2015 projection for all wheat seeding at 55.5 mln acres down -1.3 mln acres from 2014

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  all cotton planting for 2015 seen at 9.70 mln acres off 1.3 mln acres from the 2014 crop

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  Average US corn prices in 15/16 marketing year are seen at $3.50 per bushel, soybean prices to average $9.00/bu

[LSN] **USDA Ag Outlook:  Average US wheat prices in 15/16 marketing year are seen at $5.10 per bushel

 

We will also be seeing 3 different reports over the next 30-45 days, which may provide some added opportunity to capitalize on a “market reaction.”

Warren Buffet and Deere: 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recently disclosed in federal filings that they had accumulated over 17 million shares of Deere & Co stock worth over $1.5 billion.

For Fun:

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Tootsie Pop?

Mathematicians at New York University conducted a very important experiment to find out exactly how many licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop. Drum roll, please.

One thousand.

For those patient enough to not take a bite, graduate student Jinzi Mac Huang determined it would take 1,000 licks to make it through one centimeter of candy, which is approximately half the length of one Tootsie Pop. The study was done to explore the effects of dissolving materials within a fluid flow, such as rocks in geological environments and pills for pharmaceutical applications. The lollipop angle was just a fun side effect.

Read more here: https://gma.yahoo.com/mathematicians-discover-many-licks-takes-center-tootsie-pop-224356597–abc-news-Recipes.html

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Markets Close

January 12, 2015 Leave a comment


Markets upon close 1/12/15

Mar Corn +1 ¾ @ 4.02

Mar Beans -36 ¼ @ 10.16

 

CORN

 

USDA estimated 2014’s corn production at 14.216 billion bushels, down 191

million bushels from its November estimate. Farmers harvested 83.1 million

acres with a record national average yield of 171 bushels per acre. That’s 2.4

bpa lower than USDA’s November estimate.

 

Corn stocks as of December 1, at 11.2 billion bushels, are 7% higher than

during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its quarterly Grain Stocks

report. Of total stocks, 7.09 bb are stored on farm, up 11% from last year. The

remainder, 4.12 bb, is stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance from

September to November 2014 indicated demand of 4.25 bb, compared to 4.29 bb the

prior year.

 

USDA’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year at

1.877 bb, down 121 mb from USDA’s December estimate of 1.998 bb. After USDA

incorporated the revised production estimate, it trimmed 100 mb from feed and

residual demand and added 25 mb of demand for ethanol and food, seed, and

industrial use. USDA said the extra corn use for ethanol was to offset a

decline in sorghum use for ethanol. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at

13.8% compared to 14.6% in December.

 

Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks 189.15 million metric tons, down a

little more than 3 mmt from last month on the decline in U.S. production. USDA

left Brazil, Argentina and China’s corn production forecasts unchanged. USDA

anticipates that China will import 2 mmt of corn, down from 3.28 mmt last year.

 

The global stocks-to-use ration came in at 19.5% compared to 19.8% last

month.

 

SOYBEANS

 

Farmers produced 3.969 billion bushels of soybeans, USDA said in its Annual

Crop Production report. It’s nearly identical with the average pre-report

estimate but slightly higher than the November forecast. USDA said farmers

harvested 83.1 million acres, a record, with a national average yield of 47.8

bpa, which is 0.3 bpa higher than the previous estimate and also a record. USDA

may update the soybean production figure in its September 2015 quarterly stocks

report.

 

There are 2.52 bb in storage, up 17% from a year earlier, according to the

Grain Stocks report. Farmers are holding 1.22 bb on farm, up 28% from the

previous year, while 1.31 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance

for September through November totaled 1.54 bb, up 14% from the same period a

year earlier.

 

The WASDE report left ending stocks unchanged at 410 mb. USDA incorporated

the slightly larger production estimate, which was offset by a 10 mb increase

in exports and 1 mb increase in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio was

unchanged at 11.2%.

 

Globally, USDA increased its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 0.91 mmt

to 90.8 mmt. It estimates Brazil’s production at 95.5 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from

December, and Argentina’s production at 55 mmt, unchanged from December. Global

ending stocks-to-use grew to 31.7% from last month’s 31.4%.

 

 

 

 

January 12th Pre-Report Table
Quarterly Stocks
Dec 1 Average Estimate Estimate Range Sep 1 Stocks Dec 1 ’13
Stocks Stocks
Corn 11.203 11.123 10.820-11.325 1.236 10.453
Soybeans 2.524 2.590 2.400-2.742 0.092 2.154
Wheat 1.525 1.499 1.400-1.585 1.914 1.475
2014/15 US Production
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA    Nov ’14
January
Corn 14.216 14.349 14.171-14.554 14.407
    Yield 171.0 173.3 171.3-174.3 173.4
Soybeans 3.969 3.956 3.844-4.020 3.958
    Yield 47.8 47.6 46.8-48.2 47.5
2014/15 US Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA     Dec ’14
January
Corn 1.877 1.927 1.710-2.081 1.998
Soybeans 0.410 0.393 0.355-0.452 0.410
Wheat 0.687 0.666 0.636-0.699 0.654
2014/15 World Ending Stocks
USDA Average Estimate Estimate Range USDA     Dec ’14
January
Corn 189.150 191.19 186.50-193.00 192.20
Soybeans 90.780 89.35 87.40-90.55 89.87
Wheat 196.000 194.33 190.90-196.00 194.90
Stocks, Production, Carryout numbers in bil bu.   Acres in millions.   Source: Rueters
US numbers in bil bu.  World numbers in million metric tons.   Source: Rueters
Compiled by Thomas Meierotto, RJO’Brien-Iowa Office, tmeierotto@rjobrien.com

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

 

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Market Grain Report

January 12, 2015 Leave a comment


Today the market has some negativity, funds are long and likely taking some profits prior to the USDA report at 11am.

 

Moving into the report the bulls are looking for opportunity.  We may see harvested acres adjusted downward.  1st quarter demand looks to be strong, but with a record crop year we may see some substantial stocks numbers to offset this.  It will be interesting to see where we land.

 

Strategy would be to enter in an offer, shoot for the sky.  You just never know the volatility this report can bring.  Report info to follow.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Filed under Community Tagged with , , ,

Grain Market Report

December 15, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets at close 12/15/14

Mar Corn +1 @ 4.08 ½

Jan Beans -6 ¾ @ 10.39 ½

 

US Dollar is doing very well, up 10.9% in 2014, the stability of the US Dollar is inviting to investors to protect from uncertainty, or geopolitical risks in other countries.  This strength is a concern for exports and manufacturing, and directly effects the value of grain for countries looking to export US Grains.

 

Weather: How does the weather this week look for Northeast Nebraska?  Well moist and warm is how it looked for last week, which was a welcome break from the cold.  But by end of day today the temperature is expected to drop and this rain becomes…….snow.  High winds expected Tuesday with no moisture, and the temps to remain below freezing at least until Friday with our first shot at 37 degrees.  Slight chances for Moisture Thursday and Friday.

 

Corn:  

Crude falling to sub -$60 levels could play a factor in the margins for ethanol,  as crude continues to tumble and the prices at the gas pumps continue to fall, (in fact gas prices have declined for 80 straight days), ethanol could become less profitable and the grind may slow down.  However new buyers in the corn provide some strength, and as long as the funds continue to show interest in grain we may see the rally continue.

 

Funds adds 10K longs and liquidates 21K shorts. As of Tuesday the fund was long 172K, when the player sheet thought they were long 162K, Commercials add 2K longs and 53K shorts. This week the Index fund adds 4K longs and nothing to the shorts.

 

Beans:

 

NOPA crush numbers were released today

 

Crush: 161.2 million bushels, right near the low end of the trade estimate range, though up from 158.0 mbu last month, 160.1 mbu last year, andrecord number for Nov. Cumulative three-month crush stands at 419 mbu, down 7 mbu (-1.6%) from last year’s pace, with USDA looking for a 46 mbu (+2.6%) year-to-year crush increase.

SBO Stocks: 1005 million pounds, below even the lowest of trade estimates, though slightly above 966 mln lbs in Oct; Nov oil use at 1752 mln lbs right in line with LY. Massive drop in oil yield to 11.1 lbs/bu – worst since Mar ’10.

SBM Shipments: 835k short tons, up from 708k ST in October and 813k ST last November. Subsequent Nov domestic meal usage comes in at 2.96 mln ST, also right in line with last season.

Bias: trade doesn’t get quite the record (for any month) crush number it was looking for it was still the fourth biggest on record and the biggest for the month of November; negative immediate reaction save for bean oil, which jumps to high side on weak stocks and oil yield numbers.

 

As of Tuesday the funds were long 3K while the floor thought they long 7K. Funds added 7K longs and liquidated 21K shorts. Commercials liquidated 14K longs and added 21K shorts.  Index fund adds 3K longs and adds 3K shorts.

 

Tidbit for the week:

After reading this my eyes were opened to just how quickly my children will grow up and be off to college.  As a parent you hope to teach your children what it means to be a “good person”, respectable, ethical, responsible, religious, and of course spend as much time with them as you can.  I didn’t realize from the day they are born till their 18th birthday I only have 936 weeks to do all of this in….

http://erynlynum.com/how-936-pennies-will-forever-change-how-you-parent/

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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