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Flood Watch


…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING… The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of Iowa and Nebraska, including the following areas, in Iowa, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie, and Shelby. In Nebraska, Antelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming, Dodge, Douglas, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lancaster, Madison, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Pierce, Platte, Richardson, Saline, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward, Stanton, Thurston, Washington, and Wayne. * From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening * A strong storm will bring warming temperatures and 1 to 3 inches of rain to the region during the middle of the week. This will result in an increased risk of river flooding, do to the unusual combination of heavy rain, snowmelt, saturated or frozen soils, and thick ice cover on area rivers. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Significant and rapid river level increases are possible do to runoff or localized ice jams. Anyone with interests along or near area rivers should continue to monitor the forecast and river levels closely. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
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Market Report


Markets:

Dow -110.54
S&P -11.96
Nasdaq -23.75

 

The US Dollar continues to be weak, Gold rises.  Crude remains above $40.  Investors also await the Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the week.

 

Grain Markets:

May Corn +11’4 @ 3.83’2
May Beans +27’4 @ 10.14’4

 

Grain markets ended negative on Friday, losing a good chunk of last week’s gains.  Likely some profit taking seen here.  The negativity remaining throughout the overnight session, but support and buying coming back to grains this morning, support continues as we erase Friday’s losses in both Corn and Beans.

 

Weather continues to be the wild card, Rain throughout the Midwest could be supportive to markets despite planting progress being at acceptable levels.  Weather getting better in South America and the transition to La Niña is still on our mind.

 

Corn: Last week was the 2nd largest buying week ever, trading 125k contracts!  The best ever was last summer.  Planting progress out later today expecting to see somewhere near 30% versus 13% last week.

 

Strategy: Basis has definitely lost value, and continues to do so.  If the market continues to rally, eliminating basis risk will be essential to keep your market gains.

 

Good news, last week we saw Brazil lift their import tax on corn and anticipating some U.S. supplies will be booked as the country looks to supplement their feed supply.

 

Beans: Beans very strong again this am, due to continued fund buying.  Some due to weakness in the USD.  Also, some weather complications in South America and geo political concerns as Brazilian Senate moved yet another step closer to holding an impeachment trial for President Dilma Rousseff.

 

Strategy: Continue to layer in small sales to lock in profits and reduce long term price risk.  Using a floor strategy may also be applicable.

 

Old Crop Basis: Basis has continued to weaken in both corn and Beans, those that have locked in basis contracts as recommended 3/31 & 4/7 have definitely saved!  It still remains a concern moving forward.

 

Weather:  A very stormy and notably cooler pattern begins over the next few days across the central U.S., then lasts for at least 10 to 14 days as multiple systems trigger t-storms; heavy rain affects nearly all corn, soybean, and wheat areas. 1.00” to 2.00” of rain affects the southern third of Brazil corn today and tomorrow, followed by dry-cool weather. Dry and unusually cool in Argentina for 7 to 10 days.

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Looking forward in the Midwest, we see the forecast for the next 10 days as wetter than normal.  Wetter than normal spring and a hotter than normal summer?  This is yet to be seen, but the talk remains.image003 image002

What exactly is El Niño?

El Niño

El Niño means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.

Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.

La Niña

La Niña means The Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejoanti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.

La Niña episodes represent periods of below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central Equatorial Pacific. Global climate La Niña impacts tend to be opposite those of El Niño impacts. In the tropics, ocean temperature variations in La Niña also tend to be opposite those of El Niño.

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

More details on the current status of La Niña

https://www.climate.gov/enso

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

Forage Options for a Wet Spring


By John Wilson, Extension Educator

The extra moisture this spring has created some challenges for most farmers, but it may provide some opportunities for those who can use some forages… either in their own livestock operation or if they can sell it. There are two different situations where this might occur… after oat or wheat harvest OR when corn or soybean acres were flooded out and it is too late to replant. The only difference is, in the second situation we need to consider what herbicides might have been applied.

            At this time of year, several crops can be planted for silage. An early maturing corn is one possibility if you plant it thick, although the yield might not be very high. A better choice for a late planting might be forage sorghum. Use high grain producing hybrids if available. The best choice of all for short-season silage might be sunflowers. They will survive a light frost and yield well under most conditions.

            If you want hay instead of silage, plant teff, sorghum-sudan hybrids, or pearl or foxtail millet. A hay crop exceeding two tons per acre still can be grown if planted soon and rain is timely. Another hay or silage alternative is solid-seeded soybeans. You can also get a couple tons of good forage from taller, full season varieties. Oats planted in early August is another option. They will yield over two tons if moisture and fertility is good and a hard freeze comes a little late.

            Also consider planting turnips and oats in late July or early August for fall pasture. You might need to burn down weeds with glyphosate to conserve soil moisture before planting. With a few timely rains in August and September, both oats and turnips produce high quality feed in a short time… and, they are inexpensive to plant.

            If replanting flooded out crop ground, check the label of the herbicides used previously. Many will have restrictions or limitations on grazing or feeding the forage grown after their application. Also, unless you used only glyphosate, other herbicides also might injure newly-planted forages.

            For instance, many corn herbicides will injure pearl or foxtail millet and teff. But, sudangrass, forage sorghum, or sorghum-sudan hybrids will tolerate moderate levels of atrazine… and safened seed can be used if Dual or Bicep-like herbicides have been applied. Consider drilling bin-run corn for silage or late season pasture, when herbicides eliminate other possibilities.

            Soybean herbicides, other than glyphosate, cause even bigger problems for replanting forages. All summer grasses are sensitive to most soybean herbicides. Sunflowers for silage and soybeans for hay or silage are among the few alternatives compatible with soybean herbicide carryover.

            Rain has also caused problems for hay producers. If rained on, the feed value of the hay is lowered… and many times, in a rush to put hay up, it gets baled or stacked too wet, which causes mold or heat damage to develop.

            Sometimes a bigger problem is the long-term damage to the regrowing plants. Driving over the field when the soil is wet will injure regrowth and can cause soil compaction. But, not driving on the field leaves an even bigger problem with the windrows.

            If they stay there until the next cutting, plants underneath will be smothered. This not only lowers yield, it creates a problem where grasses and broadleaf weeds infest the killed strips. These weeds will contaminate all subsequent cuttings. In addition, if rained on windrows are left in the field, they frequently plug your mower when you take the next cutting.

            So remove that hay any way you can… bale it, chop it, even blow it back on the ground as mulch. You may need to damage plants by driving on them to turn hay to speed drying and get sunlight to plants underneath. But it will prevent old windrows from ruining future cuttings.

            The heavy rains have made life difficult in many ways. But these are a few options for salvaging something from acres that have been flooded or an additional benefit for those with small grains, oats or wheat, in their operation.

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