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Monday’s Market Report


Markets 4/4/16 11:36am:

Dow -8.89
S&P -1.47
Nasdaq -4.77

U.S. Stock markets has been on the way up for six weeks now.  This morning drifting lower, holding near their 2016 highs after a recent rally spurred by a weakening dollar and stabilizing oil prices. Major U.S. indexes have rallied for six of the last seven weeks and many investors took comfort in Friday’s solid readings on U.S. manufacturing activity and the March jobs report, which further eased concerns about the strength of the economy.

Oil prices have back tracked reversing all of this year’s gains.  We are now back to levels below where we started early January.

 

May Oil/Crude Futures image001

Grain Markets 4/4/16 11:31am:

Corn+0’2@3.54’2
Beans-4’6@9.13’4

 

As you know last week’s USDA report was released and the special report addressed all USDA data.  In summary:

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As far as planting goes, Producers in NE Nebraska are patiently waiting to start planting corn.  Crop Insurance start date for our area is April 10th.   Moisture is more than adequate with 2-3” of total moisture over the last 2 weeks. Temps have been sporadic with daytime highs ranging from 40-75 deg. night time lows range from 24-35 deg. with current 4” ground temp at 47 deg vs. 43 deg same day last yr.  Bottom line our soil profile is pretty full and we do have some standing water, ideally we would like a warmer and dryer forecast through April… this week cool mid 50’s and dry.

With regard to acres, there is talk of many producers switching back to beans.  At least those that were considering corn on corn.  Things have changed and the corn to bean ratio is now back to where we like to see it at 2.5.

 

Corn:  The big weight on Corn is the Planting Intentions, which, even if we do see some switches out of corn and into beans, either due to wetness or better returns for Beans given the rally in the SX/CZ ratio, still means we need a rather sizable crop yield loss to turn this market around, given the current stocks at 1.9 bln bu and the fact that it might take a national yield under 160 bu/acre to drop stocks enough to matter.

 

Strategy: Call strategies are cheap right now.  This will allow you to move the corn now, have a floor, and a shot at upside.

 

Beans: started overnight a little firmer but have turned into negative territory during the day session, as we saw Soymeal break to losses of $2-3, which is likely due to the fact that the non-Commercial or Spec Fund had covered some of this short, but the cash markets are not following meal values higher, as demand is lethargic and totally hand-to-mouth, as corn’s long term bearish outlook does not bide for meal staying too high in value.

 

Strategy:  8.00/9.60 Triplex contracts are right in the money.  If you don’t have in an offer, this may be an opportunity.

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Retirement: Saving for retirement?  The rules are about to change.  New rules aimed at stockbrokers will have enormous impacts on the way Americans save for retirement.

The rules aren’t coming from the government’s financial regulatory apparatus but from the Labor Department. This week, it is expected to release final regulations that will require brokers getting paid to provide investment guidance on a retirement account to act solely in the best interest of the investor.  It will affect IRA’s, and 401K’s as well.

Read more here:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-government-rule-rewrites-retirement-savings-1459762202

For Fun: Last week this was going around, I received it by email, text, and of course Facebook.  But if you haven’t seen it, it is good for a chuckle……or a tear or two.

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Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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About katcountryhub
I am a graduate of Northeast Community College with a degree in journalism. I am married to Jeff Gilliland. We have two grown children, Justin and Whitney and four grandchildren, Grayce, Grayhm, Charli and Penelope. I will be covering Lyons, Decatur, Bancroft and Rosalie and am hoping to expand my horizons as time progresses!

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