Grain Market Report

September 29, 2015 Leave a comment


Grain Markets 9/29/15 @ 10:24am

Corn +1 ½ @ 388 ¼

Beans + 4 ¾ @ 8.81 ½

Global markets rallied Friday after Fed Janet Yellen laid out plans to increase rates by years end, but the rally was short lived.  Global stock fall this morning due to concerns of China’s economy, Dow, S&P, Stoxx Europe 600, Asia’s Nikkei 225 all fell this morning.  Shares in commodities giant Glencore sank over 20% as they suffer from a slump in commodities.

 

Apparently another Government “shut down” is looming as of October 1st, 2015.  With Speaker of the House John Boehner’s resignation from congress, he agreed to stay until the end of October to assist with passing a bill to prevent shut down.

This afternoon weekly crop conditions and harvest progress will be updated, I am anxious to see as more producers begin harvest.  This Wednesday is the USDA Quarterly Stocks report, in the event of a market reaction it is wise to have nearby cash offers, and new crop HTA offers in place to capitalize.

 

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For Fun

A Lunar Eclipse last night for all to see!  Last night was the first full lunar eclipse I have ever seen.  A blood red moon, and it happened to be a super moon, something very rare!

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lunar eclipses occur when Earth’s shadow blocks the sun’s light, which otherwise reflects off the moon. There are three types — total, partial and penumbral — with the most dramatic being a total lunar eclipse, in which Earth’s shadow completely covers the moon.  A lunar eclipse can on occur when the moon is full.  A total lunar eclipse can happen only when the Sun, Earth, and Moon are perfectly lined up.  Anything less than perfection creates only a partial eclipse or nothing at all.

 

My family and I decided to head out into the country last night to watch the eclipse.  A peaceful quiet evening, a chance to talk with my family about whatever, but many good questions about science in general and the eclipse.  The only thing that would have made it better would have been a telescope.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

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Grain Market Report

September 15, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets 9/15/14 10:00am

Corn +2 ¼ at 3.40 ¾

Beans +2 ½ at 9.87 ¾

 

The market has been testing the upside all morning, finally going into the “green” and staying there.  Interesting, given the bearish news in Thursday’s USDA report and the lack of frost damage over the weekend, the primary support appears to be demand related.

 

The bulls hoping to wake up this morning with frost threat Friday/Sat have been disappointed.    Most of significant freeze was limited to western North Dakota and far northern Minnesota.  IT appears most areas saw more of a soft frost with limited damage to yield potential.

 

China continues to purchase new crop beans.   Thus creating demand to keep prices supported at current levels.

 

Next week appears to warmer and dry in most areas, moving harvest that much closer.

 

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

 

 

 

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Special Grain Report

September 11, 2014 Leave a comment


Special Report
This morning the USDA issued their September Supply and Demand estimates for principle crops including corn, soybeans, and wheat. The following tables show a breakdown of the numbers:

 

Corn:

The USDA left the old crop carryout unchanged leaving all adjustments in the new crop category. Production was up over 300 mbu from the August numbers on a yield increase of 4.3 bpa. These numbers are slightly higher than what many thought the USDA would throw at us for the September report. Fortunately, new crop demand categories increased in the Feed (+75), Ethanol (+50), and Export (+25) categories, resulting in a 14/15 carryout increase of nearly 200 mbu.

Market Reaction: Negative. Regardless of what the USDA was going to say today, many are convinced that the highest production estimates are yet to come. Harvest numbers will confirm the USDA’s thoughts. We would expect our negative trend to continue.

 

Soybeans:

Old crop soybean carryout levels fell by 10 mbu with higher production expected in new crop. Yield numbers increased by 1.2 bpa resulting in production increases of nearly 100 mbu. Demand categories of Crush (+15) and Exports (+25) increased to partially offset the supply increases. The net result was an increase to the 14/15 carryout by 45 mbu.

Market Reaction: Negative. Similar to corn, the market is anticipating harvest results in the coming month that will confirm the size of the crop. Absent of any freezing weather in the next few weeks, the size of the bean crop looks to grow.

 

World Stocks:

14/15 World carryout continues to climb, which continues to drive the market into negative territory.  World Beans up 4.6, Corn up 2.1 (million Tonnes).

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Markets

September 8, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets as of 9/8/14 8:55am

Dec Corn -9 @ 3.47

Nov Beans -14 ¼ @ 10.07 ¼

Weather

 

Weather is expected to turn cooler this week. A cold front pushing down from Canada into the Northern Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday bringing our first chance of frost for the season for North Dakota and parts of Minnesota.  Many locations will see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal, however the crop threat seems limited, unless the frost pushes further south than expected.  With the change in weather comes the threat of thunderstorms thought the upper Midwest as well.

 

USDA

 

The USDA report is expected Thursday this week.  Many are expecting the USDA to increase yield expectations based on the many analyst reports.  Historically USDA tends to make smaller incremental adjustments through the September report, and move the estimates aggressively in the October and November once they have better proof of the yields.  We will see on Thursday how aggressive the USDA is with their report.

 

Corn

 

Bears await the USDA report this week looking for a significant bump in yield estimates of up to 5 to 7 BPA, which seems pretty hefty, regardless of the size, I think we would all be surprised if there was not some sort of increase from the USDA.

 

From a technical perspective, if the funds see the projected yields to be a money making opportunity, and the funds choose make sales, it is likely to see the price continue to head downwards.

 

It may be wise to develop a strategy for new crop bushels that must be delivered out of the field (overage).  Once producers bins are full, and crop is delivered out of the field, we may see basis weaken as elevators fill up.

 

Beans

 

The story is similar to corn, many await the USDA report to get a feel for where we are headed.  And again, analysts believe an increase in yield estimates is likely.  The concerns of early frost could cause a bit of a shift in the market.  Producers should look to capitalize on any up swings in the market caused by a weather scare.

 

Risk Disclosure – The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition.  Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.  Neither the information, nor the opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.

 

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | C: (402) 380-9855 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com

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Grain Prices and Markets

August 25, 2014 Leave a comment


Current markets as of 8: am 8/25/14

Corn -5 ¼ @ 3.60 ¼

New Corn -4 ¼ @ 3.67 ¾

 

Beans -6 ¾ @10.35 ¾

 

Commodities are softer this morning outside of Sep beans and soybean oil. Corn is down -3 and soybeans are down -7 after the overnight session.  While the US Dollar index is higher.

 

-New crop beans made new lows overnight, marking the fifth time it has done so in the last 10 trading sessions.

-slower harvest in the south and fewer soybean imports than expected have caused old crop bean basis levels to rocket upwards, this may be an opportune time to make an old crop sale if any beans are left.  Harvest basis is likely to head back into negative territory come October.

-good weekend rain coverage across key portions of the growing region and more to come this week.

-crop conditions will be out later this afternoon

 

Strategy: It may be time to look at adding some premium to a new crop sale or hedge.  For example receiving an extra 20 cents on a sale today in exchange for a new crop offer.  Harvest basis levels also may be a risk concern, especially for beans.

 

Pro-Farmer Tour

Pro-Farmer state by state yield estimates vs last year’s USDA yield are shown in the charts below. As you can see, it appears even better yields are expected with the exception of Nebraska Soybeans.

 

Corn Yield (bpa) Last Year PF This Year % Change
Nebraska 170.0 171.5 +1%
  1. Dakota
 138.0 140.0 +1%
Minnesota 160.0 160.0 NC
Illinois 178.0 198.0 +11%
Iowa 165.0 183.0 +11%
Indiana 177.0 193.0 +9%
Ohio 177.0 187.0 +6%
US Total 158.8 169.3 +6.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean Yield (bpa) Last Year PF This Year % Change
Nebraska 53.0 51.0 -4%
  1. Dakota
 40.0 40.0 NC
Minnesota 41.0 41.5 +1%
Illinois 49.0 54.0 +10%
Iowa 44.5 49.5 +11%
Indiana 51.0 52.0 +2%
Ohio 49.0 50.0 +2%
US Total 43.3 45.3 +4.6%

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

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Grain Prices

August 5, 2014 Leave a comment


Markets at of 8:41am 8/5/14

Sept Corn -4 @ 3.54 ¾

Dec Corn -4 ¼ @ 3.65

 

Nov Beans -15 ½ @ 10.64

 

-Yesterday saw a rally in the grains, with corn+7 & soybeans +21!  However a more negative tone this morning.

-Weather forecasts did not change much since Friday when we were lower by this amount, but short-covering came into the market and we are waiting to see if the forecasts pans out this week, with rains forecast

-Crop conditions fell by 2% on corn to 73% good/excellent nationwide. Nebraska corn fell by 2% as well

-Soybean conditions were steady at 71% good/excellent nationwide. Nebraska soybean conditions fell by 2%

-Overnight corn is down 2 with soybeans down 10

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

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Grain Markets

July 21, 2014 Leave a comment


-Overnight markets are lower once again with weather being non-threatening and yield prospects high

-Corn & beans finished near the lows Friday after trying to mount a recovery mid-week. Follow through selling is being seen overnight

 

Markets @ 10:17am 7/21/14

Corn -7 ¼  @3.64

New -6 ½ @ 3.71 ½

Beans +2 @ 11.78 ¾

New -11 ½ @ 10.73 ¾

 

 

For more information, contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

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Grain Markets Negatively Impacted by Today’s Report

June 30, 2014 Leave a comment


The National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) issued two major reports this morning. The June Quarterly Grain Stocks report measures grain in all positions as of June 1st. It is used to gauge both on farm and commercial inventory of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Due to the reports only being released quarterly, expectations are often quite variable which leads to a volatile trade. The Planted Acreage report indicates the amount of acres planted to principal crops and is based on surveys taken in late May and early June. Below are summaries of both reports.

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks

Corn stocks reported at 3.8 billion were above the average guess but within the range of expectations. Soybean stocks were reported at 405 million bushels which was slightly higher than pre-report estimates.

Market Reaction: Negative for both commodities.

 

Planted Acreage

Corn planted acreage was reported at 91.6 million acres which was slightly below pre-report estimates at 91.7. This total is the smallest number since 2010, but still the 5th largest since 1944. Soybean acres were a massive 84.8 million acres, well above pre-report estimates at 82.2. This total is easily a new record for soybean acres, some 7 million higher than the previous record. The number is up 11% from a year ago and reflects higher soybean prices through the spring and wet weather during planting, which may have pushed some corn acres to beans. The USDA is expecting record soybean acreage in MI, MN, NE, NY, ND, OH, PA, SD, and WI.

Market Reaction: Negative for both commodities

 

At 11:43 a.m. New Crop corn is down -19 ½  and soybeans are down -60.

 

For more information contact:

 

Greg Mockenhaupt

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

 

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Grain Markets

May 19, 2014 Leave a comment


By Greg Mockenhaupt, Grain Market Contributor

Markets 5/19/14 @ 8:33am

Corn -2 @ 4.81, December -1 @ 4.80

Beans unchanged 14.65, November +5@12.27

 

-Markets are mixed this morning, with lower corn & wheat, and higher new crop soybeans

-Planting progress is expected to be over 70% for corn and 30% for soybeans this afternoon with the majority of the corn left in the northern states.

-Most are talking of more soybean acres with the “late” planting and less corn acres, however markets have been counter-intuitive as new corn has broke from highs and new beans stay strong

-Look for strong corn export inspections on the report later today

 

For more information, call Greg Mockenhaupt at the CVA East Hub. Information is listed below.

Risk Management Consultant

Central Valley Ag – ProEdge

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

Office: 402-685-5613

Cell: 402-380-9855

 

 

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