Market Report

Markets:
11/2/15 9:40am
Dow +96.60
S&P +11.77
Nasdaq +34.07

Gasoline Prices: The price of gasoline is declining more slowly than oil, illustrating how consumers aren’t fully benefiting from falling commodities prices.

Typically, gas prices go up and down in tandem with crude oil, the main ingredient. But according to The Wall Street Journal, oil prices have been falling much faster than gas prices. Drivers have paid at least $1 billion more for gasoline than they would have if the historical pattern had continued this year, according to government and industry statistics.

Regular gasoline prices have fallen more than 28% in the past year to an average of $2.18 for a gallon of regular unleaded. By comparison, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has fallen more than 50% to about $50 a barrel.

Grain Markets:
11/2/15 10:02am
Dec Corn -5’0 @ $3.77’2
Jan Beans -1’0 @ $8.82’6

Harvest continues its momentum as the weather continues to cooperate.  Many locations now with significant piles of corn on the ground.  Central Valley Ag hubs continue to aggressively serve our area producers as locations begin to fill up.  There is a lot of corn out there, and this is a blessing for most area producers.

Increased yield:  Many area producers are seeing some pretty impressive yields!  Increases in yield can significantly change your business plan, and could be the difference needed with the grain prices of today.  The chart below is an example, if you marketed/planned on 175 bushels per acre for corn and 50 for beans, you established your breakeven based on cost of inputs etc.  When the final yields come in, there is additional profit to be had across each and every bushel.  This is one of the reasons break even calculations are so important in budgeting and planning.  These windfall bushels are a great thing, so congratulations!

Corn/Beans:  The story is consistent between the two, corn and beans continue their range bound ways while we wait for a story which sends the market one way or another.  Though it seems there isn’t much more negative news to be had, the trade has built in with record yields, corn on the ground, and decent export numbers.  I think keeping an eye on South America, Ukraine & Brazil for a weather headline or something to give us an opportunity moving forward.  Another consideration is next week’s USDA Supply and demand report scheduled for November 11^th.

Weather:

The Weather Channel – If you are not quite ready for the chill that is normally associated with November then you may be in luck.  A warmer-than-average November is expected for the eastern half of the U.S. while colder than average temperatures are likely in parts of the West.

“The big news heading into November is an unusually strong sub-seasonal pulse that will oppose and overcome the baseline El Niño signal. What this means is that, for at least the first part of the month, the pattern will be more typical of La Niña conditions than El Niño conditions, with cooler temperatures across the West and unusually warm temperatures across the East,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist of WSI, a division of The Weather Company.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/november-2015-temperature-forecast

For Fun:

Halloween weather was beautiful, and there was no football game scheduled for high school.  So we had over 100 Trick or Treaters.  The best part, we handed out full size candy bars, so the kids thought that was a great thing.  We did end up spending all day setting up our cemetery, and the boys and one of their friends got all dressed up to “scare” the kids.  It was a lot of fun for everyone!

Greg Mockenhaupt

ProEdge Risk Management Consultant

P: (402) 685-5613 | Greg.Mockenhaupt@cvacoop.com

1007 County Road O

Oakland, NE 68045

www.cvacoop.com